29.09.21 Technical analysis BTC / USD – key support holds, will there be a reflection? (update)

Bitcoin (BTC) had little yesterday, but in the end they managed to defend the $ 42,000 again. I hope you noticed I was in yesterday’s analysis inserted a brief update on the dollar index. The dollar is significantly bullish, which also resulted in a fall in the stock market. He was quite strong yesterday. But Bitcoin has been spared so far. But that can change, so it’s a big risk for us.

Update 16:15

The dollar index broke free. There was a breakdown of key resistance around 93.5 points and we are still going up. However, the daily close is only relevant, so we will see how high the dollar gets in one go. Keep in mind that the risk is rising.


Dollar index

A hearing was held at the US Congress yesterday, where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke. The US dollar reacted with growth, because Powell again only confirmed that quantitative release a reduction in asset purchases awaits very soon. Risk-off therefore, the environment intensifies, which is reflected in the strong growth of DXY.

DXY

Technically, the dollar index breaks through key resistance, which is around 93.5 points. If it breaks through this resistance, more precisely it closes over weekly candles, stocks, bitcoin and gold has a problem. Then it is really reasonable to calculate what the whole market is counting on – with a huge risk. For me personally, the imaginary line is breaking the level of 95 points.

Of course, I don’t have a crystal ball, even with growth above 95 points, other markets can remain stable. But it risk The fall is so great that it is then prudent to think twice about whether you want to take such a risk. As for yesterday’s show in Congress, I’ll talk more about it in tomorrow’s stream. There were some interesting topics.

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Current situation at 1D BTC / USD

Yesterday was a slump when Tuesday’s candle closed the bearish. But the candle itself is very tiny and the volumes were weak. This implies that Sellers are running out of power. That is why I would now be inclined to close Wednesday to green. And if the dollar index doesn’t start pumping out, Thursday and Friday could still be in the green.

BTC

He simply holds that $ 42,000, so I don’t see why it should be necessary to continue to fall. However, if we go down, the first reflection can be expected around the 37,000 USD mentioned several times. Here is a good support confluence, so there should definitely be a reflection here.

In the event of a breakthrough from current levels, the first obstacle is the resistance of $ 47,000, where the High Volume Node is also volume profile.

Indicators

The RSI indicator curve begins to rise slowly. Although for a while the values ​​fell below 40 points, but now we are above again. There has been no change to the MACD histogram yet.

In conclusion

If the market keeps the $ 42,000, the bulls will get a spinning spin on the weekly chart. Which could really indicate that a wave is coming soon. The recovery would be justified, but we still need to think about the dollar index. If it grows too fast, it can cause panic. And once there is panic, even strong support levels are suddenly useless.

ATTENTION: No data in the article is an investment board. The analysis does not try to predict future price developments. It serves exclusively as an educational text on how to approach the market mentally. Before you invest, do your own research and analysis, you always trade only at your own risk. The kryptomagazin.cz team strongly recommends individual risk considerations!

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