4 moderate risk regions. Rt index drops to 0.85

Today is the monitoring of the epidemiological trend of Covid-19 in Italy played just before the reopening of schools in most of the Italian regions. There Sicily stays in yellow zone while the Calabria, with its numbers, is a candidate to enter soon (17.4% of the beds occupied by Covid patients in the medical area and 10.7% of intensive care units occupied). Some parameters were measured between 10 and 16 September, at the turn of the reopening of the schools. This monitoring therefore photographs the national situation of infections in a very important phase, that of the return to class of children and adolescents.

What does today’s report from the Higher Institute of Health tell us? The Sicily is still in yellow zone, while the rest of Italy is in the white zone (Piedmont also remains in the white zone). However, Calabria and the autonomous province of Bolzano register a very high number of new cases compared to the white zone: they are rather close to the levels of Sicily. The salient elements that emerge are these (some are positive, others signal that an attitude of caution must be maintained and that the vaccination campaign cannot be stopped):

– Calabria risks entering the yellow zone together with Sicily

– the incidence of cases fell last week (from 64 to 54) and the Rt index also went down

– there are 4 regions classified as “moderate risk (they were 3 a week ago)

– hospitalizations and intensive care are slightly decreasing

The details

Moderate risk – Four Regions and Autonomous Provinces are classified at moderate risk (they are Abruzzo, Molise, the Autonomous Province of Bolzano and the Autonomous Province of Trento), compared to 3 last week. The remaining 17 Regions / Autonomous Provinces are classified as low risk. Only the Autonomous Province of Bolzano reports a resilience alert. None report multiple resilience alerts.

The resuscitations – The ICU employment rate of Covid patients is in slight decrease to 6.1% (daily survey by the Ministry of Health), with the number of people hospitalized decreasing from 563 (7/09/2021) to 554 (14/09/2021). The same value in the data sheet on decision-making indicators that accompanies the weekly monitoring, now being examined by the control room, updated on 14 September, sees an even lower value: 5.8. The employment rate in medical areas nationwide drops slightly to 7.2%. The number of people hospitalized in these areas is decreasing from 4,307 (7/09/2021) to 4,165 (14/09/2021).

Contagion index – In the period 25 August – 7 September 2021, the average Rt calculated on symptomatic cases continues to decrease, which was equal to 0,85 (range 0.83 – 0.95), below the epidemic threshold ed down from the previous week when the value was 0.92. The incidence of cases per 100 thousand inhabitants also falls (and this is one of the key decision-making indicators) which passes, in the national value, from 64 last week to 54 in the latter (period 10-16 September).

Sicily yellow zone, Calabria risks and boom incidence in Bolzano

Sicily, the Autonomous Province of Bolzano and Calabria are the Regions and Autonomous Provinces that record this week the highest value relating to the incidence of Covid-19 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. In Sicily the incidence value – one of the key decision-making indicators – is equal this week (reference period 10-16 September 2021) a 109.1 per 100 thousand inhabitants.

In the Autonomous Province of Bolzano the incidence is equal to 90,5. In Bolzano there is the absolute highest rate of unvaccinated adolescents: they are 40%, that is 9,179 boys between 16 and 19 years, and then there is also the absolute highest percentage of unvaccinated among the very young: as many as 15,660 adolescents between 12 and 15 years (68.84%) have never received a single dose.

Why does Calabria risk the yellow zone?

The Calabria yellow zone is at risk: the incidence is equal to 84,8 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. The hospital parameters are also close to the alert thresholds. The Region records 17.4% of the beds occupied by Covid patients in the medical area (the threshold value is 15%) and 10.7% of intensive care units (the threshold value is 10%).

Moreover, Calabria, like Sicily, holds some negative records on the vaccination rate. This implies a greater circulation of the virus and hospitalizations which can also degenerate. Calabria has the highest percentage of teachers who have not yet been vaccinated: they are 13,581 out of 46 thousand, equal to 29%. 23% of Calabrians who are between 50 and 60 years old have not received even a dose of vaccine (there are 68 thousand), 17% of the sixty-year-olds, too, are still waiting (there are 41 thousand). And if we go up with the age we discover further, substantial, pockets of people who are giving up protecting themselves: even in their seventies. Just like Sicily, Calabria sees 16% of people between 70 and 79 who have never been vaccinated: this is over 29 thousand people. Same goes for the eighty-year-olds. As many as 26,590 seniors over 80 have never received a dose of vaccine to protect themselves from Covid: a huge percentage of 19.20% (the same as in Sicily which has 66,000 over 80 totally uncovered).

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The list of new cases of the last week divided by province sees at the top Reggio Calabria with 121, Crotone 110, Cosenza 82, Vibo Valentia 28 e Catanzaro 26.

The infections are still caused by the Delta variant. This variant – recall from the control room – is dominant in the EU and associated with an increase in the number of new cases of infection even in countries with high vaccination coverage. Hence the prescription: «Higher vaccination coverage and the completion of vaccination cycles represent the main tools to prevent further recurrences of episodes of increased virus circulation sustained by emerging variants with greater transmissibility. It is advisable to continue to ensure widespread tracking, also through the active collaboration of citizens to carry out the containment of cases; maintain high attention and apply and comply with recommended measures and behaviors to limit the further increase in viral circulation».

The values ​​of all regions

For the terapie intensive the Regions that register a level of occupancy of beds above the maximum threshold set at 10% are: Walk (12,9%), Sicily (11,8%), Sardinia (11,3%) e Calabria (10,7%).

These, on the other hand, are the values ​​recorded in the individual Regions and Autonomous Provinces relating, respectively, to a incidence, occupancy of beds in the medical area and occupancy of beds in intensive care:

– ABRUZZO (43,6; 5,5%; 4,0%);

– BASILICATA (55.5; 12.6%; 6.5%);

CALABRIA (84,8; 17,4%; 10,7%);

– CAMPANIA (44,0; 9,7%; 2,8%);

– EMILIA ROMAGNA (68.0; 5.4%; 4.8%);

– FRIULI VENEZIA GIULIA (60.5; 3.5%; 5.1%);

– LAZIO (40,4; 7,0%; 5,2%);

– LIGURIA (46,3; 5,5%; 3,5%);

– LOMBARDY (35.1; 6.8%; 3.9%);

WALK (52,8; 5,7%; 12,9%);

– MOLISE (17.2; 5.1%; 5.1%);

– PA BOLZANO (90.5; 4.4%; 8.8%);

– PA TRENTO (39.5; 3.7%; 1.1%);

– PIEDMONT (36.5; 3.5%; 3.7%);

– PUGLIA (32.1; 6.7%; 3.8%);

SARDINIA (45,1; 12,5%; 11,3%);

SICILY (109,1; 20,7%; 11,8%);

– TUSCANY (70.2; 7.2%; 10.0%);

– UMBRIA (59,2; 6,7%; 5,5%);

– VALLE D’AOSTA (15.3; 2.4%; 0.0%);

– VENETO (72.8; 3.6%; 5.6%).

– ITALY (54; 7.2%; 5.8%).

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