If funds from international partners come in, the NBU will be able to end the risky practice of printing the hryvnia, the economist predicts.
Financial expert Alexei Kozyrev predicted what the official dollar exchange rate in Ukraine in 2023.
Economist predictedthat Ukraine will not be able to completely avoid devaluation, recalling that the state budget was based on the rate of 42.2 UAH / USD.
Kozyrev predicts that if funds from international partners come in, the National Bank of Ukraine will be able to end the risky practice of printing the hryvnia, or at least reduce its volume.
“If there is international assistance, the official exchange rate will remain at the level of UAH 36.57 / USD until the 3rd-4th quarter of 2023,” the economist noted. “But we still cannot completely avoid devaluation.”
Kozyrev predicts two scenarios for the development of events:
- devaluation at the beginning of the year,
- devaluation in the fourth quarter.
“My forecast is that officials will do something in between: they will catch up with the official exchange rate to the level of 40-41 UAH / USD in the 1st quarter of 2023, and then to the official level included in the budget, that is, from 42 to 43 hryvnias, already in 3 Q4. Depending on the situation in the economy, on the situation on the fronts, in general in the war, and also taking into account what will happen to the Ukrainian energy and gas infrastructure,” the expert said.
Dollar exchange rate in Ukraine: how much is the dollar on November 25
Recall that in bank exchange offices in Kyiv On November 25, the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar remained at the level of the previous indicator – UAH 40.50 / USD. The hryvnia depreciated by 15 kopecks against the euro, to UAH 41.35/euro.
I the exchange rate of the cash dollar in PrivatBank remained at the level of the previous indicator – 40.00 UAH/USD The euro exchange rate against the hryvnia has risen in price by 20 kopecks – up to 41.10 hryvnia / euro.