A recent scientific study in which Egyptian and American experts participated, including Dr. Mohamed Abdel-Aty, the Egyptian Minister of Irrigation, and experts from American and Egyptian universities and international bodies, revealed The presence of a land subsidence at the site of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance DamMany scenes and pictures reveal a serious breach of the dam’s safety factors, and confirm that it is not safe at all.
The study analyzed 109 images and scenes from December 2016 to July 2021, using radar ray technology, all of which indicate displacement factors and movement of different directions in different sections of the concrete dam, which is the main, as well as the dam, which is “the assistant”, which warns of great danger, amid Expectations of the collapse of the dam and its impact on the downstream countries.
According to the study obtained by Al-Arabiya.net, the analysis of the data at the dam site clearly reveals an inconsistent subsidence at the outskirts of the main dam, especially the western side, where it recorded varying displacements ranging from 10 mm to 90 mm at the top of the dam. The dam was running quickly and without studying or analyzing data, which affected the body of the dam technically, and hydrologically affected the Blue Nile Basin. It also revealed that there is unequal vertical displacement in different sectors of the main and auxiliary dams.
The study indicated that there are very excessive flows on the eastern and western sides of the Renaissance Dam, which are uneven and inconsistent, and here lies the danger, as it was large at the first filling, and then increased more and more dangerously at the second filling, which is what the experts who conducted the study believe is behind stopping the suspension of the dam. Ethiopia for the second filling and contentment with what was stored. In the first filling, it is 5 billion and 3 billion in the second filling.
The experts who conducted the study revealed that the dam is a grave danger, and is not completely safe, and they ruled out its implementation and completion, or the storage of 74 billion cubic meters as Ethiopia intends, noting that the volume of seismic activity or ground faults under the dam and its body is very large and of a high degree of danger, but the study monitored The presence of ground movements at the dam site and before the water reaches it, which may represent a huge pressure on the ground layers.
According to the study and the estimates of the experts who prepared it, the continuous storage operations of the dam may cause several problems and catastrophic repercussions on the two downstream countries, which is cause for concern and requires a comprehensive investigation and collective cooperation to prevent these damages. Ethiopia must also investigate and respond to cases of vertical displacement for peaceful and fruitful cooperation among all concerned states.
In addition, the Egyptian expert, Abbas Sharaki, reveals that what the study mentioned is not new, as it was preceded by other studies that warned of a landslide at the site of the Renaissance Dam and the presence of geological risks in the Ethiopian plateau in general, and this was revealed when the Ethiopian Takizi Dam collapsed and the victim was 47 workers, including 3 From the Chinese company that was implementing the project, as there was a collapse in the Gibe 2 project on the Omo River.
He added to “Al Arabiya.net” that Ethiopia is one of the countries suffering the most from severe soil erosion, in addition to the fact that the waters of the Blue Nile descend sharply from 1,800 meters at Lake Tana to 500 meters at the Renaissance Dam, which constitutes large floods, pointing to the spread of the phenomenon of landslides and precipitation. The rocks are caused by cracks, heavy rain, and the force of the rush of water and silt.
He said that the Renaissance Dam is close to the largest fault on the surface of the earth, which is the great African groove, which divides Ethiopia in two, and the dam and the lake are located on faults from the Cambrian period, in addition to the fact that the rocks of the dam area are “granite” and highly decomposing .. and cracking and water leakage inside the cracks increases the activity The seismicity, in addition to the flow of the Blue Nile water from the tops of the basaltic volcanic mountains, loaded with large quantities of silt, which threatens the water projects.
fait accompli policy
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi had stressed that the policy of imposing a fait accompli threatens a widespread threat to the security and stability of the entire region.
And he said in Egypt’s statement to the United Nations General Assembly last Tuesday evening on the Renaissance Dam that everyone knows the outcome of the negotiations that have been going on for a decade between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan as a result of known intransigence, and an unjustified refusal to deal positively with the negotiating process in its successive stages and to choose a unilateral approach. And the policy of imposing a fait accompli, which threatens to threaten the security and stability of the entire region.
He said that because the matter did not develop into a threat to international peace and security, Egypt resorted to the Security Council to assume its responsibilities in this file and to support and strengthen African mediation efforts through an active role of observers from the United Nations and friendly countries, stressing that Egypt is still committed to reaching as soon as possible a comprehensive, balanced and binding agreement. A law on filling and operating the Renaissance Dam.
Al-Sisi said that this is an important matter in order to preserve the existence of “150” million Egyptian and Sudanese citizens and to avoid serious damage to the capabilities of the peoples of the two countries, based not only on the values of fairness and logic, but also on a solid international legal ground that established the principle of fair and equitable use of the shared water resources in International River Basins.
A few days before that, during a press conference with the Congolese Foreign Minister, who visited Cairo to discuss the resumption of the Renaissance Dam negotiations, in line with a statement by the Security Council requesting that, Sameh Shoukry, the Egyptian Minister of Foreign Affairs, announced that the time factor is very important in the Renaissance Dam negotiations and that his country welcomes their resumption.
He said that consultations were held on the Renaissance Dam, after the presidential statement issued by the Security Council, stressing Egypt’s confidence in the Congo to resume negotiations in order to activate the statement of the Security Council and with the active participation of international observers, stressing the importance of reaching a binding legal agreement on the rules for filling the operation of the Renaissance Dam.
Shoukry pointed out that the Security Council statement emphasized the element of time and work quickly to reach a binding legal agreement, explaining that if there is political will, a binding and legal agreement can be reached.