After the elections, there will probably be a government that will bring Bulgaria into the war in Ukraine

Escalation is set and the theoretical scenario of a nuclear war is completely real, warns political analyst Prof. Ivo Hristov, who was a guest of Flagman

Prof. Ivo Hristov, political analysis, elections, war in Ukraine, third world war, nuclear war, USA, Russia, China, India, Europe, conflict, geopolitics, Burgas

– Prof. Hristov, last night you gave a lecture in Burgas on the topic “Bulgaria in the eye of the storm” – an interesting title that can be interpreted in two ways.

– It’s a metaphor, of course. The truth is that, despite Bulgaria’s great reluctance to be sucked into the huge geopolitical whirlwind into which the whole of Europe is slowly but surely entering, we are very close to the epicenter, due to our purely geographical location. Bulgaria, on the other hand, is important as a territory – not as a people and not as a country.

– This has always been the case historically, it is not news.

– Due to the fact that the territory is important, the question today is not “If?”, but rather “When?” And I must tell you that the events exceeded even my most pessimistic expectations. Coming to Burgas on the Trakia highway, I passed a huge military echelon – 125 mm guns, armored personnel carriers, etc., which were apparently going to the Ukrainian front. Bulgaria is already in this conflict anyway. And we are already at the existential stage of praying not to participate in the war directly, which at least Tsar Boris III avoided.

– Is there such a danger, really, that we enter directly into this war?

– There is. In general, the syndrome of boiling the frog gradually, the “Overton window”, works. I think the temperature is rising. These are indirect indications. Let’s hope the worst is over.

– In geopolitical terms, is the war related to the bankruptcy of SVB in the USA from last week?

– Rather not. These are different processes, although they resonate with each other. The economic difficulties in which Europe is beginning to enter are clear, but this is already being observed in the United States as well. Yesterday I read that the Swiss bank “Credit Suisse” should be bailed out with more than 50 billion dollars. This will sooner or later drag others along.

– There are some signs, however, that Europe seems to be “giving back” to Ukraine. Including in the USA, we seem to see such a process.

– Europe has no will of its own. Of course, there is common sense and forces that somehow try to stop or reduce the speed with which Europe is being sucked into the Ukrainian swamp, but the huge geopolitical momentum is so great that, in my opinion, there is no force that can stop this process.

– A few days ago, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came up with an interesting interpretation – about the conflict in Ukraine as a “territorial dispute”…

– You are talking about America, not Europe.

– Speaking of Europe, we must also speak of America, after all.

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– If the governing establishment changes in the USA, which is an open question – we don’t know if it will happen, maybe there will be another development of the situation. But at this stage, my view is that we are more likely to escalate.

– What can this escalation lead to?

– From purely theoretical, the scenario of nuclear war and total annihilation of the Earth, becomes real.

– Russia shot down an American drone in the Black Sea. Is this a sign that we could soon see a hot and direct war between the US and Russia?

– Such an incident was only a matter of time. Such type of reconnaissance flights are carried out not for the first and not for the second year. It was a matter of reaction time. Let’s hope things stabilize at this level only. I noticed that the highest level shuttles were activated immediately. The Minister of Defense of the USA contacted his colleague from Russia, then there was also contact with the Chief of the General Staff. That is, the channels for military communication have been activated. And I, to tell you the truth, rely only on the common sense of the military on both sides, because these are the only people who know what it is really about. If we leave things in the hands of politicians alone, the situation is desperate.

– Especially if we see who the politicians are in the USA. They are incapable of dialogue, in my opinion.

– They have no such intentions at all. There it was decided to raise the table. They are convinced that they will crush Russia. This shows that they lack elementary historical literacy and demonstrates that in their desire to impose themselves – because in the China-Russia tandem, they consider Russia to be the weaker link, they want to knock Russia out of this link and to end the process of ” the encirclement” of China.

– I will mention DeSantis again. In his last speech, he also commented on this – that Biden’s current policy towards Ukraine is destructive for the USA and rather helps China.

– That’s right. At the moment there is a big discussion because as a result of the policy of the USA, China is now slowly but surely sucking Russia and turning it into its armed arm. The truth is that the big losers from this conflict are Europe and Russia. And that we are moving not to a multipolar world, but to a bipolar one.

– A New Cold War?

– It is already there, the question is who are the subjects and who are the two poles. The new world will again be bipolar. Unfortunately, the demarcation line, if not the hot line, will run directly along the Bulgarian border.

– Which border are you looking at – to the east towards the Black Sea or to the north – towards the Danube.

– East and North, it is more than clear. Things are extremely worrying.

– Won’t reason prevail?

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– Sorry, but this is a cliché that means nothing. What does it mean for reason to prevail? Nobody wanted World War I to break out either, I don’t know if you know. When Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo, everyone thought it would get away with a show of military force and mobilization. And since no one wanted to start a war – documents have already come out, suddenly everyone finds themselves sucked into a conflict that lasted 5 years and destroyed the color of Europe. In a sense, the First World War was the beginning of the end of Europe.

– And where is India, where population growth is at an enormous rate, in the whole current situation?

– India has no intention of violating the imposed ceiling on export prices. She plays an ambivalent role. I don’t know if you know, but the import of oil products from Russia to India has increased more than 5 times in the last year. On the other hand, India, for obvious reasons, tries to play an intermediary role towards the Anglo-Saxon world. Much of the elite there is Anglo- and American-centric. On the other hand, Delhi’s biggest fear is China. Now India seems to be gravitating more towards the nascent Anglo-Saxon union AUKUS (A.ustralia, U.nited K.ingdom, U.nited S.tates, note), which lacks the demographic density that India can easily provide. It is the fear of China that pushes the country towards this union.

– Is this neutrality?

– So far they are trying to be neutral, yes.

– Could this behavior be because of the BRICS informal alliance, in which India participates along with Russia and China?

– The world has split in two. Regarding the war in Ukraine and rather – let’s put it directly – the confrontation between the USA and Russia. There was a big poll recently that showed that roughly speaking, the line runs down the middle. Polling of major countries such as China, India, Turkey and the Arab countries showed that support for Russia is in the order of 50-60%. And on the other side – the USA, Central Europe, Western Europe and the countries gravitating towards them, public sentiments are at the other extreme.

– In the end, what is the role of Bulgaria in this whole process that we are observing?

– A pawn that is moved on the chessboard.

– Is there no way to change this?

– No, there’s no way, because in the end we don’t have a tradition of independent politics and independent behavior.

– Some are comparing certain leaders of Bulgarian parties with Orban at the moment…

– Please, I think this is a serious conversation on a serious topic. Such a statement shows absolute ignorance of both Bulgarian and Hungarian realities. Hungary is an absolutely imperial country with a high state imperial tradition, with a very cultured people who have a deep tradition and memory of national resistance and defense of national interest. Hungary has resisted in absolutely… how should I say in such hopeless situations against the Russian Empire, the Austrian Empire, etc., so Hungary really experiences itself as its own pole of micropolitics. The analogies between the two countries are pointless. But this is part of the overall process of crashing. In Bulgaria, it is no longer possible to talk seriously about serious topics due to the lack of expertise. In our country, several generations came into circulation, whose general educational and intellectual level is, to put it mildly, primitive. I say this as a university professor.

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– OK, but nationalist formations still steal a large part of the vote with their populist talk.

– Naturally. To prevent the kettle from exploding, the steam is always released. It has been so, if I am not mistaken, since 2005. A system is kept in this way, and it is the most stupid thing to suppress it. There are some 15-20% of the electorate who think in this way – rather, they do not think, but reflect emotionally on these topics. Accordingly, it is good that this vote is selected and controlled in the form of an allegedly opposition vote.

– We are still in the context of another election. Can you make any predictions?

– I assume that a government will be formed that will bring us into the war. That’s it. That’s the point of what’s happening.

– By “final” do you mean Bulgarian boots on Ukrainian terrain?

– Probably that too.

– Still, there is a difference between “people in the field” and “people in the field”. We still have Bulgarians fighting there for Kiev. However, we do not have real soldiers, part of the Bulgarian army.

– The very fact that a Bulgarian, God forbid, military contingent went to the Ukrainian front means a total reversal of the Rubicon. Then we have only ourselves to be angry with.

– What happens next?

– Fourth and final national disaster. After that, there will simply be no Bulgaria. In Burgas you are on the first line, let’s hope you won’t feel it.

– OK, and on the other side of the coin there are your fellow analysts who say that Russia will break up into its constituent parts.

– So they spoke in 1812, so they spoke in 1941. And in 1989. Reports of the death of Russia are slightly exaggerated. On the other hand, the so-called “Special military operation” in Ukraine exposed the entire bankruptcy of oligarchic post-perestroika Russia of the so-called “Russian Federation” since 1992. This showed that a society of oligarchic capitalism, based on the peripheral extraction of resources in the western direction and the corresponding oligarchic superpower cannot be an independent center of power and cannot set its own civilizational and cultural force fields . Russia will be re-transformed in the course of this gigantic clash. We are only at its beginning, but perhaps we will be present for its end. Of course, any prediction is slippery – if you want to make God laugh, tell him about his plans for your life.

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