ASPS selects 14 stocks with a chance to bounce in line with the stock market recovery after political progress from the ruling coalition signed 23 MOUs with more relaxed policies reduce the likelihood of political unrest
Securities Company Research Department (SEC) Asia Plus (ASPS) revealed through an analysis that Concerns about stability and the transition of the government have put pressure on the Thai stock market or SET Index in the past 8 working days. Dropped more than 85 points from 1576 to 1491 yesterday (lowest in 2 years) and gradually recovered. up somewhat, closing at 1529 points
From the point of view of the research department The stock market is expected to have a better sentiment after the 8-party coalition government signs MOUs in 3 main parts:
1. There are only 11 policies where the First 100 Days of Progressive Party policy overlaps the 23 MOU agreements, and overlapping policies have little effect on stocks in the market, such as 2 policies that affect the stock market, namely electricity tariff restructuring, land reform However, there is also a policy of distributing the budget. Along with helping SMEs, it is likely to be positive for consumer stocks such as MAKRO CBG SNNP CPALL CRC CPN COM7.
2. There is a policy in the MOU that affects stocks in the market. But do not rush to do in the first 100 days of the Progressive Party such as wage increases, business monopoly abolition, etc. Good for large corporate stocks GULF TRUE CPALL CPN BDMS and stocks with Labor Intensive CK STEC HANA KCE have a chance. Recovery in a short period. 3. Conditions are added to the draft. Supporting the transition of the government has the opportunity to be smoother, for example, with additional sections “The task of governments of all parties to push forward together is must not affect the form of government and the democratic system of government The King is Head of State and existence in the state sacred Whoever is inviolable of the King, “including the cut of Article 2. Originally in the draft version, which states that “To create harmony in society All parties will work together to push for Facilitate justice in cases related to political expression through the mechanisms of the parliament.”
Both parts are expected to encourage the senator to vote for Mr. Pita Limcharoenrat to become the 30th prime minister, resulting in less chance of political unrest. Good for tourism stocks such as AOT, CENTEL, ERW, MINT.
In the investment strategy corner of the research department make a selection “Stocks expected to recover from Progressive policy progress” through the following conditions: 1. Stocks shrink after the election (15-22 May 2023) and begin to recover. 2. Beta higher than 1, hoping to recover more strongly than the market. advancing policy progress Both in the corner, the stock went too deep. or supported by campaign policies Got the following results:
Stocks whose price dropped sharply after the election and have high beta.
|share||Last Priec||Beta||Return||The return||%Ytd|
|(baht)||after election||from Low Price to Now|
Source: ASPS Research Department
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