"That presents a risk to the US rally at the moment," Mr Felsman said.
"At the same time, the iron hour price was down on Friday … so that has a big influence on the (ASX) materials sector."
Weaker Chinese growth may not be a good outcome for Australia.
CommSec's Ryan Felsman
Meanwhile China trade data released on Friday showed exports fell 1.3 per cent and imports fell 7.3 per cent in June.
That showed Australia's biggest trading partner "struggling to get a firm footing" after the end of stimulus measures, Mr. Felsman said, noting the US imposed more tariffs in May.
The ASX 200 needs to lift 2.3 per cent to top its all time high of 6851.5 while the Ordinary needs to jump 1.25 per cent to get past the same milestone set at 6788.
AMP Capital's chief economist Shane Oliver said he expected the ASX to open closer to 10 or 20 points lower, rather than the 30 points futures markets pointed to.
The US Federal Reserve is ready to cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, I know all ears will be on a speech by its chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, Dr Oliver said.
The speech follows must have testimony he gave over two days to congress late last week where he signaled an intention to cut.
"He'll probably confirm that the Fed will cut interest rates in the weeks ahead," he said.
"Australia started cutting first and now looks like America after cutting interest rates in 2015," he said, noting Europe will likely follow suit.
The most recent meeting will be released on Tuesday and will likely echo Governor Philip Lowe's recent remarks that the outlook remains "reasonable" with further easing depending on the data.
"At the time being the RBA is quite happy to sit back and see how things unfold," Dr Oliver said, noting AMP predicts another rate cut in November.
On Thursday, June's labor force survey will be released, with the unemployment rate predicted to hold at 5.2 per cent alongside 10-20,000 employment growth.
"Those figures will be looked at quite closely. If unemployment does not go much further, then it is consistent with the Reserve Bank," said Dr. Oliver.
The market is also keenly awaiting the latest economic growth data from China and retail sales data from the US.