DThe courage of the Iranian soldier borders on bravado: on the high seas, standing on the prow of a small Iranian motorboat, he approaches the damaged near the tanker of the Strait of Hormuz "Kokuka Courageous". After the man is beside, he removes a round object, about the size of the plate.
According to the US Army, this is a mine of detention that has not exploded, apparently due to a bug. The United States now claims that the soldier should eliminate this evidence of Iranian terror in international waters. The video could show that the feared war in the Persian Gulf has long since begun. The pressure on Tehran is increasing. What is behind the escalation?
In response to US sanctions, Iranian terrorists seem to focus on a limited military escalation in one of the world's most strategic straits, with targeted attacks on the oil industry of hostile countries. The threats to world peace and the global economy are enormous.
Oil exports turn back
The background is the massive economic pressure on the Tehran regime, after the United States canceled the nuclear deal a year ago and imposed new sanctions on Iran. Oil exports, the country's main source of revenue, have fallen by more than half. All of this also affects the country's ability to manage an effective foreign policy.
Iran is forced to significantly cut its financial support to allied militias in the region, such as Hezbollah's Lebanese militia. The regime's influence is diminishing and the crisis has long threatened its stability. The economy is in free fall, the displeasure of the population is increasing. In Tehran, hope seems to be lost that other states and the EU can use diplomatic means to evade US sanctions.
This tactic is a mixture of well-known strategies of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The first principle is that of "plausible deniability". In the past, the attacks sent a threatening message, but the author could not be determined with final legal security.
Add to this the old threat of Tehran to block the Strait of Hormuz in case of US aggression. This strategy was tested by the Revolutionary Guard during the first Gulf War in the 80s. At that time Iraq wanted to damage the Iranian economy by attacking oil tankers with Iranian oil in the Persian Gulf.
In retaliation, the Iranians then attacked with motorboats and mining ships that traded with Iraq's Arab allies. An estimate of the Lloyd's insurance exchange in London took place in the "tank war": over 400 sailors killed and 546 merchant ships were damaged.
Iranian attacks called the United States on the scene at that time. They escorted the oil tankers through the Persian Gulf. After an American warship was severely damaged by an Iranian mine in 1988, the United States destroyed numerous naval bases of the Revolutionary Guard. The escalation eventually led the Iranian leadership to accept a ceasefire with Iraq in July 1988, ending the bloody war.
Both strategies are now showing in the Persian Gulf. If the Revolutionary Guard was still open in the "Tanker War", now everything seemed covered to avoid American reprisals. The escalation began weeks ago. On May 13, mysterious explosions occurred outside the port of Fujairah (United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates); four tankers were damaged. At that time, many experts did not want Iran to be openly accused of the attack.
An international investigation has only ascertained that the attacks were perpetrated by divers who operated from small "motorboats" and fortified mines on the hulls of the ships. One thing is certain: only Iran has the capacity to act militarily here. Fujairah is located a few tens of kilometers from the coast of the country.
Further evidence points to Tehran. C & # 39; s the fact that the ships were attacked right in Fujairah. The port was connected by the Emirates in 2012 to a purpose-built building for over four billion dollars, a 380 km oil pipeline. This should have circumvented the Strait of Hormuz to make the country less vulnerable to Iranian attacks in the Strait. The latest explosions now indicate that Tehran's opponents are never safe. The information provided by the Israeli intelligence service Mossad in the United States also indicates the Iranian revolutionary guards. Tehran has rejected the charges.
A day later, rebels from Houthi allied with Tehran attacked the pumping stations and pipelines in Saudi Arabia with drones. The attack caused great unrest in the expert circles. Riyadh spent billions to secure its oil industry. However, the fact that the Huthi managed to destroy targets 500 kilometers from Yemen has shown that Saudi Arabia cannot hermetically isolate the airspace of the Kingdom. For example, 26 people were injured this week when a Yemen missile struck a terminal at Abha airport. The next attack could hit an oil terminal again.
The video released by US forces makes it difficult for Iran to adhere to the principle of "plausible deniability". That Tehran has apparently decided on such a risky confrontation course shows that "the hard-line Iranians are now in charge", according to the Iranian expert Meir Javedanfar of the Herzliah interdisciplinary center at the request of WELT.
The attacks also hint at the government of Iranian President Hassan Ruhani, who is considered pragmatic, that the time has come for his "coccolona diplomacy with Europe". However, they are primarily intended as a sign of foreign policy: "It is about showing strength and making it clear to others that other states will be hit as long as Iran suffers from sanctions".
Iran (t) Persian Gulf (t) United States (t) Revolutionary Guard (Geo: Irn) (t) Politics (t) Gulf of Oman (t) Fujairah (t) Persian Gulf (t) Iran (t) European Commission ( t) Explosion (t) Motorboat (t) Iraq (t) Yemen (t) Hormuz (t) Kokuka Courage (t) Arab Emirate (t) Tehran (t) Attack (t) Front Altair (t) USA (t) tanker