Azimut superstar: surprise dividend in sight. Buy on the fly

Today’s session also ended with the plus sign for Azimut which continued to push forward in Piazza Affari, climbing for the fifth consecutive session.

Azimut up for the fifth session in a row

The stock, after closing yesterday’s session with a rally of over 4%, today showed a much more cautious trend.

At the end of the day, Azimut stopped at € 26.53, with an increase of 0.3% and approximately 1 million shares traded, against the average of the last 30 days of approximately 700 thousand.

The stock continued to rise after the company yesterday provided preliminary indications on the 2021 close above expectations.

Azimut: preliminary data for 2021

Net profit for 2021 is expected to be 600-605 million euros, against Equita SIM’s estimate of 531 million euros and compared to 518 million by consensus, and well above the target of 350-500 million.

According to analysts, this difference is mainly linked to higher performance fees, estimated in the order of around 300 million euros against the 190 million expected.

Net inflows in 2021 are expected to reach € 18.7 billion, accounting for the expected 17.1 billion, of which 5.5 billion in managed assets, with solid net inflows in December of € 786 million in assets under management.

The overall AUM at the end of 2021 amounted to 83.2 billion euros, up 38% year-on-year compared to the expected 81 billion, of which 40% from abroad, with an EBITDA contribution from abroad of around 70 million.

The recruitment activity in 2021 recorded 141 entries, up from 94 in 2020, reaching a total of 1,840 units.
In 2021 the net customer performance (weighted average) was 6.5% and + 1.6% compared to the Fideuram index.

Azimut: modification of Luxembourg fund commissions

In addition, Azimut has filed an application for a change in the fees applied to Luxembourg funds with the local supervisory authority, which will align the method for calculating performance fees with the new ESMA guidelines.

This new calculation system will imply a TER, i.e. a total cost for customers in line with the historical average, with a higher recurring component and the introduction of a system which, in the event of underperformance compared to the benchmark, will provide for the return of a portion of the recurring commissions.

The change should therefore result in slightly lower performance fees and slightly higher recurring fees.

Azimut: Equita SIM raises estimates and target price

The 2022 guidance will be provided with the results of next 10 March and pending this event, the Equita SIM analysts have decided to raise the 2021 profit estimate by 14% to 603 million euros, while the 2022 profit rises from 393 to 425 million euros, to incorporate higher management fees for higher AUM and slightly higher margins on management fees, partially offset by slightly lower performance fees.

Equita SIM maintains a cautious view, with a “hold” recommendation and a target price raised by 9% to 29.5 euros.

Analysts point out that Azimut is trading with a 2022 price-to-earnings ratio of 10x and offering a 5% dividend yield.

Azimut: the view of Deutsche Bank and Intesa Sanpaolo

To bet on the stock is Deutsche Bank which has a “buy” recommendation, with a target price of € 30.1: both indications have been confirmed after the best-than-expected preliminary data.

Intesa Sanpaolo colleagues recommend adding the security to the portfolio, with a fair value of € 28.5.

For analysts, the indications on 2021 net profit were better than expected, on a par with net inflows in December.

Azimut: Banca Akros sees extraordinary dividend

Also bullish is the view of Banca Akros which today reiterated the “buy” rating on Azimut, with a target price raised from 28 to 31 euros.

Preliminary data for 2021 were above guidance and according to analysts the stock is trading at an excessive discount compared to its competitors.

In light of the strong expected results, it is possible that Azimut may decide to remunerate shareholders with an extraordinary dividend, in line with what has already been done in the past.

Trend-online Deputy Director, born in 1978.
After completing his studies at the Classical High School “Antonio Calamo” of Ostuni I entered the world of economics.
For about twenty years I have been dealing with Stock Exchange and Finance. After having worked as a financial promoter for several years, in 2005 I joined the Trend-online team as an editor, to later become deputy director of the cylinder head. Among other countless activities, I take care of maintaining relationships with all the experts, analysts and traders, consulted daily by Trend-online.

My motto is? “Life is like a mirror, if you look at it smiling it will smile at you”.

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