Because the West has underestimated China's military capabilities

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Did you know that China already has the largest Pacific fleet? The most active submarines? And are those often published images of his old Cold War weapons obsolete?

The wrong calculation of China's capabilities could be the biggest mistake of the West.

And strategic analysts are starting to warn that an entire series of generally accepted "truisms" are, in fact, dangerously wrong.

The Chinese army has no experience. It is technologically inferior. His troops are poorly trained. His equipment and tactics are "knock-offs" of poor quality of stolen Western technology.

These statements seem promising for a world increasingly worried about Beijing's bellicose assertion of its new power.

But are they real?

The story contains a warning.

Those very same balls were confidently confined to Japan over the years 30 and 40.

The famous "Zero" fighter was just an economic rip-off of Western projects, they said. Its impressive fleet was built on an ancient British technology. And their preparation and tactics were lower. They had no new ideas.

December 7, 1941, brutally tried everything wrong above.

Are we preparing again for such a surprise?

COMBAT EXPERIENCE

He is a myth. Chinese military leaders are eager to perpetuate.

At the Shangri-la Dialogue conference in Singapre, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe said that his nation had "attacked no one" since its formation in the 40s.

Say it only in Vietnam.

And South Korea.

And Tibet.

And while he hasn't had much peer clashes since his failed attack on Vietnam in 1979, neither has the West.

The clash between Britain and Argentina in the Falkland Islands in 1982 is the closest thing to a peer war in recent decades.

The Gulf Wars I and II saw an overwhelming force, supported by immensely superior technology, crushing the outdated military of Saddam Hussein's Iraq. And the endless war in Afghanistan is an insurrection – not a toe-to-toe struggle.

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So the West itself can also be labeled as inexperienced, warns Senior Defense researcher Timothy Heath of the RAND Corporation.

"How much the experience counts remains unclear. Also the idea of" inexperience fighting "brings its own ambiguities. The US Army, at the height of World War II, had fallen into misfortune after a vast demobilization ".

The US and Western armed forces have suffered a similar "demobilization" since the end of the Cold War. Mr. Heath said that the Chinese army now has an impressive arsenal, but its ability to use them well is unclear.

"There are reasons to be skeptical," he writes. "The People's Liberation Army (PLA) struggle under the legacy of an obsolete command system, rampant corruption and training of questionable realism, among other issues."

But Beijing is aware of this, he warns.

"President Xi Jinping, the president of the central military commission, has directed important efforts to address each of these defects and improve the military capacity to fight and win wars."

NAVAL ASCENDANCE

In less than a decade, the Chinese fleet has shifted from a largely coastal and regional force to a completely fleeing bluewater presence.

Its ships are modern, large and very well equipped.

And this has defense analysts wondering about Beijing's latest ambitions.

That things have come to this point was the result of the "US intelligence community and the miscalculation by the academic world of the scale, size and timing of the modernization of the PLAN and its impact on security United States national team ", retired captain James Fanell warns.

The United States Naval War College met in May to discuss the directions in which the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy is expanding.

He noted that China has commissioned almost four times more ships than the United States in the last ten years. And this rate of expansion shows no sign of slowing down.

It was also noted that Beijing operated 106 ships capable of deploying advanced missile systems in the western Pacific, while the US navy was only 22.

And all the notions that Chinese technology was inferior were dispelled.

Its scientists have made significant progress in developing laser, hypersonic and electromagnetic pulse weapons as well as advanced unmanned artificial intelligence systems.

Meanwhile, US programs – such as the $ 7 billion next-generation Ford USS aircraft carrier – have been destroyed by problems. This ship will deploy without being able to operate its main aircraft – the F-35C stealth fighter – because its advanced electromagnetic catapult and weapon lifting platforms simply don't work.

The entire Chinese navy is not able to dominate the Indian and Pacific Ocean. It is an extensive network of support ports. But it is the international investments of Belt-and-Road and the diplomatic initiative is actively pursuing such a goal.

The declared objective of the PIANO is to become a "Far Seas" power by 2050.

GROWING CONFIDENCE

China is "on the verge of deploying some of the most modern weapon systems in the world", warned a recent assessment of US defense intelligence.

But that's not what they're worried about.

US intelligence agencies believe that China is becoming more and more self-confident and is rapidly reaching the point where it might be willing to use force to affirm its claims on the South China Sea and Taiwan.

"The biggest concern is that they will reach a point where the (military) leadership could actually tell President Xi Jinping that they are confident in their abilities," a defense intelligence official told the media in January.

"As these technologies mature, with the entry into force of their reorganization of their army, as they become more competent with these abilities, our concern is that we reach a point where internally, within of their decisions, they will decide that using military force because a regional conflict is something more imminent ".

And these fears seem to have been confirmed by the Chinese defense minister when he spoke at a meeting of international foreign affairs and defense ministers in Shanghai earlier this week.

"As the Chinese public says these days," A speech? Welcome. A fight? We are ready. Bully do we? Nothing to do, "said General Wei Fenghe.

"The PLA has no intention of causing problems to anyone, but it is not afraid to face problems. If someone risks crossing the bottom line, the PLA will act resolutely and defeat all the enemies.

"China must be and will be reunified. We find no excuse for not doing so. If anyone dares to separate Taiwan from China, the Chinese army has no choice but to fight at all costs, at all costs, for the 39; national unity. We will strive for the prospect of a peaceful unification with the utmost sincerity and the greatest efforts, but we do not commit ourselves to give up the use of force. "

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