Before the decision on Brexit: the great conjecture

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It seems likely that the Prime Minister may collapse in the vote on Brexit. How are you? The British are equally astonished by this as by the EU.

By Stephan Ueberbach, ARD Studio Brussels

A long pause. A deep sigh. A helpless look. In Brussels, these are the typical answers to the question of all the questions. What if Theresa May fails as planned in the London Parliament next week with her Brexit agreement? "This is the great mystery, not even his ministers know what he's doing," says Richard Corbett, Labor MP in the European Parliament.

In terms of Brexit everything seems possible: a vote of no confidence, early elections, a second referendum or even total chaos – the no-deal.

"We will leave the EU on March 29th"

The United Kingdom Government has approved the withdrawal without a contract with 89 trucks in the port of Dover. A mini-jam as a means of maximum pressure to allow regressive parliamentarians to look briefly into the abyss. But if this really helps?

Secretary of State Brexit Martin Callanan was clearly optimistic during his visit to Brussels this week: "It is our government policy not to extend the withdrawal deadline and we will leave the EU on March 29, as required by the European treaty as our Parliament wants and as we will now do in legislation ". If you are not wrong.

A country is in a dead end

Because it is probable that the majority of the withdrawal agreement will not be granted in the House of Commons in London. On the contrary The question is really how big the crisis will be for May. However, British MPs also want to prevent a tough Brexit. A country is in a dead end. And now? "If you do not want to go without an agreement, but reject the agreement on the table, then there are only two logical options: negotiating another contract, which is difficult, or you have to stop Brexit," says Labor. Man Corbett. "It's legal, but politically you need a new referendum."

And a delay. Because until March 29 it is not possible to organize a new vote. In other words, London should ask the EU-27, the European Union the United Kingdom less, to extend the Brexit deadline and find a good motivation.


Calls for a second referendum that is becoming stronger

The mood in the UK now seems to have turned. The requests for a second referendum become stronger. And the European Parliament asks the British an open letter to rethink their decision on Brexit, stating that an exit would harm both sides.

More than 100 parliamentarians have already signed the letter and the trend continues to rise. If there really is a new referendum, the result is almost certain, according to the Brussels-based Labor Parliamentary Corbett, because especially the supporters of his party have changed their mind and do not let themselves fall for the false promises of Brexit fans.

All current opinion polls, he says, show a clear majority to stay in the EU. "People do not want Brexit anymore," says Corbett.

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