Conflicting forecasts between OPEC and IEA

Oil, demand forecasts, OPEC, IEA,

Contrary to IEA forecasts, OPEC is lowering its oil demand forecast.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its monthly report on the state of the world oil market on Thursday, August 11.

In its report, the Organization revised downwards its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2022.

OPEC justifies this drop by the economic impact of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine as well as the inflation of Covid-19 and the measures to counter its spread, reports the Reuters agency.

the Organization estimates that world oil markets will become surplus in 2022 with oil demand expected to increase by 3.1 million barrels per day (mbpd), 260,000 bpd less than the previous forecast.

In addition, OPEC lowered its economic growth forecast from 3.5% to 3.1% for this year and to 3.1% also for 2023.

“This is still solid growth, however, when compared to pre-pandemic growth levels, which were only marginally above average and not burdened by the potentially impacting current issues. said OPEC.

OPEC is also cutting its forecast for the amount of crude it will have to pump in the third quarter by 1.24 million barrels per day to 28.27 million barrels per day (570,000 barrels per day less). than what the 13 band members pumped in July).

In this same context, it should be noted that OPEC’s forecasts contradict those of the International Energy Agency, the IEA, which announced earlier in the day an increase in its demand forecast for this year by 380,000 barrels per day to reach 2.1 million barrels.

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A barrel that came close to 100 dollars on August 11, 2022 (The price of the basket of thirteen OPEC crudes stood at 101.29 dollars per barrel on Wednesday, against 100.92 dollars the day before, according to calculations by the OPEC Secretariat).

Synthesis: Nadi K.


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