News Corona: Germany development - scientist draws bitter conclusion

Corona: Germany development – scientist draws bitter conclusion

Coronavirus measures: In a YouTube video, chemist Mai Thi Nguyen speaks of a marathon – but with a clear perspective

  • During the Corona * crisis apply strict activitiesthat restrict public and private life.
  • While some politicians are calling for an early exit, others are keeping a low profile.
  • The scientist and ARD / ZDF-Youtuberin Mai Thi Nguyen-Kim now speaks of one marathonthat lies before us.
  • Here you will find the basic facts about the corona virus, current case numbers worldwide and the latest developments in Germany.

Munich – Mai Thi Nguyen Kim has in Germany and the USA chemistry studied and did her doctorate, together with Harald Lesch she appeared on science shows. She has been operating in cooperation with ARD and ZDF, a Youtube channel, which brings young people closer to scientific topics. Her most recent video from April 1 has reached over three million viewers to date (as of April 6) – although it does address some things in it that do target group may not please well, or precisely because of that.

“The problem is that some are now beginning to get the impression that maybe after Easter, maybe a little bit later, we got over it somewhat unscathed. Unfortunately, this idea is unrealistic fantasy. “

Youtuberin Mai: The corona crisis is just starting

“As long as we don’t vaccine have is that pandemic not over until 60 to 70 percent of people have become infected, have recovered and are then immune, ”says Mai Nguyen-Kim. With currently 73,000 known cases, one could assume that in total about 730,000 people were or were already infected – 48 to 56 million infected people would only become infected Herd immunity to guarantee. In doing so, she makes it clear to her viewers: “The corona crisis is just starting. It won’t be over until we have a vaccine. ”

Coronavirus measures: How flat does the curve have to be?

Try modeling scientist to derive currently with which measures one the Epidemic* how can affect. With about 30,000 existing intensive care beds, of which the last was mentioned, and two to five percent of all infected peoplewho are dependent on lying in such a bed for ten to 20 days, a sick person may only infect 1.1 more people. The bottom line for Mai Nguyen-Kim is: “To avoid the collapse of the health system, we have to take strict measures for maintained for a year or two. And that’s not possible. “What are they Alternatives?

Coronavirus Measures: Alternatives to Flatten-the-Curve Strategy

To understand alternatives, you first need to know that Epidemics * run in phases. Two of them are:

Phase 1

Containment

Containment

Isolate the sick, understand contacts

Phase 2

Mitigation

Limitation of damage

Keep your distance, strict measures, flatten the curve

Nguyen-Kim puts it this way: “The strategy Flatten-the-curve to containment the epidemic will not work. Flattening alone would take too long. We must the Stop curve and again Phase 1, containment, to return. Then for the most part something like normality would come back and that isolation of sick people and tracking contacts could be practiced again. “

Data should first show whether the current measures are actually sufficient. In his own model calculation, Nguyen-Kim comes to the conclusion that all are strict in this case too activities would have to be held for about 56 days – but that is not a forecast.

Coronavirus measures: how can it go on?

In the end, she made it clear: “We are working on one Relaxation of measures there, but we will not be able to do without it for a long time. Football stadiums, concerts, conferences, après ski this year? Forget it!”

Until vaccine we would all have to hold out – because natural herd immunity is only too high a price for that Healthcare system or psyche and economy to reach. Your good news: Phase 1 is no longer the same the second time: knowledge, test and hospital capacities, staff in Authorities and acceptance among the population would then be much wider.

Coronavirus measures: what is it about Nguyen-Kim’s scenario?

Nguyen-Kim says she is on Model calculations (including the Robert Koch Institute) supports, but each epidemic runs individually. Unknown variables are seasonal trends or the comparative asymptomatic courses in many people.

Still, that seems scenario – Follow the strict measures, return to somewhat relaxed measures – to be a realistic way. To concrete activities To be able to deduce, the data basis must first be improved, experts and politicians also see it that way in many cases – while there is definitely disagreement about details, as became clear with Anne Will. Although calls for earlier easing are particularly loud from the economy, the measures are still very popular, especially among the population. But the Youtuber remains guilty of an answer: How could she? Return to phase 1 for people from Risk groups appearance?

A doctor now tweeted why disposable gloves in particular are not a good idea.

* Merkur.de is part of the Germany-wide Ippen-Digital editors network.

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