The coronavirus pandemic has several unanswered questions. In Argentina, the main cause of this uncertainty is that the time necessary to test some responses has not yet elapsed. And in this health crisis the world is experiencing it’s all about weather. Save time, flatten the contagion curve, make the disease peak do not exceed the response capacity of health systems.
In order to try to reach a good port with this objective, the Government established a quarantine from the Friday, March 20 and until the 31st of this month. But the focus is already on the day after and everything indicates that the paralysis will continue.One factor that influences the decision is that the number of days that will have elapsed until March 31 (11) will not come in two weeks, which are necessary to establish a correct diagnosis on the effects of the measure.
The technicians who work with the statistics in the Ministry of Health of the Nation are convinced that it is necessary to extend the general quarantine at least a week. And most likely, as it has already been revealed by the Government, is that the home stocks continue in force until after Easter. This would be until Sunday, April 12.
The concern is great and that is why the result of this experiment called Social isolation. Anyway, that’s only part of the story. The other part takes place in the “situation room” of the ministry led by Ginés González García, where they will begin to receive this Friday real-time information of vacant beds province by province. That centralized information, they explained, will be key to managing resources and being clear, minute by minute, what is the need regarding availability.
The officials who received Clarion They affirmed that they work to face the worst of the pandemic, which in Argentina is expected to end of april or beginning of may. The estimated number of cases for that height of the crisis would be, according to official forecasts, 250 thousand. According to the same estimates, between 4.8% and 5% of boarding schools would require intensive therapy.
Is the Argentine health system ready to face this scenario? The Government is in the final evaluation phase of installed capacity, with the receipt of reports and the constant updating of the country’s health assets. According to that information that is coming to the Moreno and 9 de Julio data centers, the reality seems more benevolent than the files indicated.
Until Thursday, March 25 at night, the sum gave them 9,047 adult intensive care beds and 2,026 pediatric beds. Historical records, on the other hand, yielded fewer beds. “It is likely that in the next few hours, when the survey ends, the number will continue to increase,” they said in the ministry.
This is how these figures, like those of those infected by coronaviruses throughout the national territory, grow every day as reports arrive. However, of this total number of beds it is estimated that 85% are currently occupied by patients. That is an average that is maintained and that is why the horizon is limited.
The objective, according to a source who works closely with the minister, is to begin evaluating case by case among those who are currently hospitalized in intensive care for other reasons (that is, not due to coronaviruses), to determine if they could be transferred to a intermediate therapy. In this way, they consider, they would be able to free more beds that have more complex technology.
To this will be added the suspension of all scheduled surgeries, with which the aspiration is to reach the worst of the pandemic “with the 50% of intensive care beds available to treat severe cases of coronavirus“The same source said. The government is not unaware that the peak of the local pandemic will also coincide with the bronchiolitis and flu season.
It is for this reason, too, that President Alberto Fernández will ask China 1,500 respirators more artificial. And to this will be added 130 weekly units that the three Argentine manufacturers promised to deliver. As for the reagents to carry out the analyzes, the Malbrán Institute has already reported that they will have a total of 500,000.
For that moment of greatest demand, the composition of the universe of infected will be different from the current one: the amount of imported will become The minority, while the cases that are currently listed as “under investigation” (until Thursday they numbered 96) will be added to the list of those considered as “locally transmitted”.
It is also expected that the average age of those affected will change: while it currently stands at just over 40, the estimate is that it increases and is located at an average of 50 years. Until this week, the band with the highest number of infected people was between 20 and 30 years old, and that has to do with the fact that the profile of the patients corresponds to that of tourists who returned infected from Europe.
In Health, they trust that after the peak of 250 thousand infections predicted for the beginning of May, the curve begin to descend. For that an eternity is missing. What is still unknown, initially closer in time (and another of the Government’s major concerns), is what the “day after” the end of the forced quarantine. Not only when will it be, but also how. On the one hand, if it will be carried out in stages, that is, a part of the population can return to their routines while the most vulnerable remain isolated. On the other hand, what will “social rehabilitation” be like, or put another way, when you can stop waving with your elbow.
In short, the question that will continue to float in the air for now is what it will be like to regain prominence in what some call everyday life, when people are formally empowered to do so. Answering that today is futurology. Although it seems that nothing will be the same after the coronavirus.