More than one hundred cases of coronavirus have been detected in recent days in the city of Beijing, until now, relatively untouched by the Covid-19. What do fear the worst in France where one is concerned to see the virus re-emerge in areas where the epidemic was controlled. The Hexagon must be the tools that are at its disposal to stem the better the spread of the virus.
Schools and universities that display the door closed, thousands of flights cancelled, and neighbourhoods quarantined : the world has eyes again riveted on the China, and particularly on its capital city, Beijing. Subject to more than a hundred cases of contamination at the Covid-19, the chinese authorities fear a resurgence of the virus and a return to measures still more severe restrictions.
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China’s situation speaks to the France, which is preparing to reopen its external borders (1 July) and which relentlessly pursues its process of déconfinement.
Observe to anticipate
To avoid the worst, the Hexagon keeps his eyes riveted on its counters. Virus Circulation, tension in the hospital services, capacity screening of his territories : these are the indicators that can be used today to the French authorities whether, in a more or less long term, the road is without danger.
In France, the epidemic is described as being “under control” according to the words of the president of the scientific Council, Professor Jean-François Delfraissy. The Hexagon note, however, of the foci of contamination are scattered, but well-identified on its territory. There remain, however, concern the island of Mayotte and French Guyana, where the government, considering the health status “degraded”, has announced that it wants to extend the state of sanitary emergency until 30 October next.
A rescue plan ?
On the paper, continues this concern to see the disease re-emerge more beautiful in the communities in which it seemed to be controlled. The fear, it is exactly these foci of contamination identified : these “clusters” as they are frequently called. Today, there are 73 in the country.
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What tools has the France in the case of a “cluster” uncontrolled ? “We are in the process of lifting all barriers in Europe, while it is very likely that this going in not a very long time. Therefore, we need a plan and I have not heard this plan”, was indignant on Tuesday, Martin Blachier, medical epidemiologist and public health specialist, on television.
First leverinevitably , it is the isolation : “The approach must be gradual, writes Laurent Toubiana, an epidemiologist and director of Research at the national Institute of health and medical research (Inserm). In this approach, there is what is called an invariance of scale : it is first and foremost to isolate the large spaces, then go down gradually to smaller spaces, the space the more restricted as the individual himself.” The doctor refers to the need to determine units relevant geographical isolation in all cases of contamination : the simple home, the neighborhood, passing by the city, department, region, see the country as a whole.
The second lever regarding the measures, barriers, and equipment that can stem the better the spread the virus : “At this level, it is certain that we are better armed than we were in march”, ahead of Pascal Crépey, an epidemiologist with the Reindeer.
Third lever: the research. If a second wave it should be, the scientific community, in agreement with this theory, believes that it will occur in the fall, or in the month of August for the most pessimistic. “France is ready for a second wave, as we imagine it in the fall, capitalizing on the fact that this virus has a seasonal nature”, affirmed this Wednesday at a press conference, Christine Rouzioux from the commission Covid-19. Enough to allow the research here-there to develop a vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2 : in Europe, the group of uk pharmaceutical AstraZeneca announced last Friday to wait for the month of September of the results on the effectiveness of a vaccine on which the group is working with the university of Oxford.
Weak links : tracing and screening
It was a response by the State to enable the better understanding of the spread of the virus. The application StopCovid that allows its users to be warned if they have crossed in the two weeks previous another user infected with the coronavirus, has been enabled by 1.7 million people in France (or 2% of the French population). The tool would only be effective if it is used by 60 % of the French.
The screening is still today a weak point of the French strategy. In the early hours of the déconfinement, the French authorities had a target of 700 000 tests to be carried out each week. France does this today as 28,000 per day.