Two brainy studies from prestigious international institutions announce sensational data. Imperial College London, confirmed by Neil Ferguson, one of the leading British specialists, examines the impact of measures taken by eleven countries to contain the coronavirus and states that the contaminated in Italy are around six million and not a hundred thousand as the official data released in Rome say this Monday.
On the other hand, the Einaudi Institute, a great university research center, directs a great collective work that for the first time analyze the descent Sustained of the expansive curve of the Covid-19 and launches a forecast: in the middle of May the epidemic will have dropped to zero point. There will be no new contacts or they will be very few and isolated.
According to research, some of the twenty Italian regions are more advanced than others in containing the epidemic and reaching the longed for last day. Some regions are going fast, others are not, says the Einaudi Institute. In Trentino-Alto Adige (north, border with Austria) they would cross the threshold as early as April 6. The next day the Valle d’Aosta, a neighbor to France, would arrive. Puglia, one of the great regions in the south of the country, would do so on April 9.
The study predicts that the areas most affected by the coronavirus may take more time to achieve flatten the curve of the epidemic. According to statistics, says Einaudi, in Veneto the zero trend has an appointment for April 14 and none other than Rome and its Lazio region would reach the goal two days later.
A few days later it would be the turn of Calabria, with the capital of Naples. Emilia Romania, the capital of Bologna, the second region with the most deaths and infections after Lombardy, will tend to zero by April 28, while Lombardy, the worst of all, should be celebrating since April 22.
According to the Einaudi Institute, there are also imprecise horizons, which are outside the estimates. First Campania, whose capital is Naples, one of the main metropolises. Then come the Marches, Molise and the island of Sardinia.
The four regions provide the worst news. They have not reversed the expansion curve by hollowing out the descent of the trajectory. Campania is the biggest source of concern for the dynamics of its last six days, which keep the curve in clear expansion.
According to Einaudi, every region every day it is subjected to strong revisions and the forecast remains in force that except in the four uncertain cases, the drop to the zero point of infections remains maximum for May 16 in the other sixteen regions.
In the Imperial College study that maintains that the infected are six million of the 60 million inhabitants of Italy, containment measures, especially the rigid quarantine, “Has saved the lives of 38 thousand people”, according to your calculations.
The analysis of the Imperial College, indicates that the infected represent 10% of the population and highlights that the meager figure of one hundred thousand infected by the Italian government is due to the underestimation of the health authorities to make ldue controls with the swabs nasopharynxes, which were concentrated in hospital settings and not in the much larger national community.
According to Imperial College, the populations of Europe are not close to the “Herd immunity”, as it is said in the jargon of scholars of epidemics, which allows the population to develop their antibodies due to the vastness of infections, making people immune to the action of contaminating viruses.
The study warns that if quarantine and isolation interventions are quickly revoked, will allow corona viruses to quickly spread again with disastrous results.