Dax aktuell: Dax releases most of yesterday's profits – these are the three reasons – Handelsblatt


The MDax index of mid-sized companies fell by 1.6% on Tuesday to 23,392 points. The TecDax technology index fell more than 1.1 percent. The main index of the Euro zone Stoxx 50 has lost 0.8 percent.

How resilient is the ceasefire between the United States and China in the trade dispute? "It is still unclear whether China will really reduce tariffs, as reported by US President Donald Trump via Twitter," said analyst Jochen Stanzl from the online broker CMC Markets. "It would be a dramatic escalation if China publicly exposes the president of the United States."

Even the postponement of further planned punitive charges provides a closer look, a small cause for joy, said portfolio manager Thomas Altmann of the financial advisor QC Partners. "Both sides are still far from a final agreement, and the cease-fire excludes new tariffs by early April, but everything is still possible."

The second source of fire: the renewed fears of a significant slowdown in the global economy have been reflected in the bond market. In the United States, the yield on ten-year bonds risks falling below that of two-year bonds. This "reverse yield curve" is seen on the stock exchange as a sign of growing fear of investors in recession. The yield differential between the two bonds was equal to 0.13 percentage points, the lowest in over a decade. The spread between comparable government bonds marked a minimum of one and a half years at 0.88 percentage points.

The third problem: speculation on an exit from Brexit will receive new food. Following the recommendation of an Advocate General to the European Court of Justice, the United Kingdom may unilaterally withdraw its request for withdrawal from the EU. The Court of Justice is not bound by the recommendations of its Advocates General, but generally follows them. Opponents of Scottish Brexit complain before the European Court of Justice and push for a second referendum to avert Britain's exit from the EU. The pound sterling rose to 1.2839 from $ 1.2729 previously. Since the approval of the negotiated divorce agreement is uncertain, a disorderly Brexit threatens.

But what speaks of a continuation of the event

On the other hand, the stock market sentiment signals further price increases, precisely because there are so many doubts on price increases. It seems paradoxical, but such a reaction is "typical of a sustained demonstration" for the sentiment expert Stephan Heibel. Heibel evaluates the weekly Dax-Sentiment poll on Handelsblatt from over 3,200 investors. "At the end of a correction, there are so many convincing arguments in the investor's mind that they can not be invalidated overnight," he says. Equity markets are rising "on a wall of skepticism". Heibel continued: "If the masses of investors realize that many concerns are legitimate but not fundamental, the stock markets are much higher".

Look at the individual values

Daimler, BMW, Volkswagen: The imminent trip of the bosses of the biggest German car manufacturer to Donald Trump at the White House is at least on the stock market under a lucky star. The observers fear the exploitation of top managers by the president of the United States. The newspapers of the three big producers were Tuesday at the end of the Dax ranking. BMW sold 1.6 percent, Daimler 2.9 percent, Volkswagen a good three percent.

German family insurance: The German family insurance (DFV) shares have increased in their debut on the stock market in Frankfurt. The first price was found Tuesday at 12.30 euros at 2.5% above the issue price of 12 euros. The stock was trading at 12.25 EUR. The insurer, which arrived on the stock market after a significant inconvenience in the second attempt, collected a total of 52 million euros, which should grow further.

Founded in 2007, DFV, which is considered an insurance start-up, relies entirely on sales via the Internet and over the phone. The insurer initially specialized in health insurance and long-term care, but recently entered the real estate insurance sector. In 2017, premium income from 420,000 policies amounted to 72 million euros. At the issue price, the DFV reached a market value of about 153 million euros, almost a third of the company was hosted by investors.

Thomas Cook: The consequences of the second earnings warning in a few months have determined the shares of the British tourism group. The shares fell on Tuesday sometimes by almost 17% to a minimum of six years of 19.69 pence. During the first two and a half hours of trading, more than three times the number of documents by Thomas Cook have already changed as on an average whole day. In addition to the shares, Thomas Cook's bonds flew from the deposits. This pushed the yield of 2022 titles to a historical maximum of 16.133 percent. On Monday they still sold 12.713 percent. As a result, the share of the German travel group Tui also declined. This yielded today 4.5%. Since mid-May 2018, this security has lost almost 40%.

What the card says

Technical analysts are hoping for a turnaround after falling prices in recent weeks. To complete completely, the Dax should rise to over 11,690 points. "A break above this level should trigger a double plan, which could lead to an upward wave to the score of 12,104 points," say UBS technical analysts.

Below this level, there is a risk of repeating the test and falling below the minimum of the current year by about 11,000 points. However, if the Dax falls below the support at 11.051, slipping on the stop line at 10.815 and finally at 10.403 threats. Below this, the brand stops at 10,100 points.

Theme: market reports

check the analysts

The US investment bank Goldman Sachs left the classification for Glaxo-Smithkline with a target price of 1900 pence in view of a possible acquisition of the oncology specialist Tesaro on "Buy". With a purchase, the British pharmaceutical colossus would have granted access to several oncology products already approved and marketed, analyst Keyur Parekh wrote in a study available Monday. Furthermore, there would be other drugs in the early intermediate stages of development.

Further analysis can be found in the control of the Handelsblatt analyst.

Click here for the Dax course page, here you can find the tops and current falls in the Dax. The current short selling by investors can be found in our database on short sales.



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