FrankfurtThe German leading index starts with a small minus in the trade and noted in the morning trade 0.2 percent lower at 12,286 meters. On yesterday's trading day, the index had continued its Easter rally and reached 12,350 points, a new high for the year. He finished with 12,313 points still 0.6 percent higher.
Yesterday's plus was the ninth daily win in a row. The record comes from February 1997 with 13 daily wins in a row. After the ninth day in a row with a plus sign at the close, the question arises: When will the correction come?
According to Joachim Goldberg, who evaluates a weekly sentiment survey among investors for the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, such a correction – if it comes at all – should not be very high at the moment. Because investors who are still waiting for a cheaper entry, would probably be active at 12,000 Dax points. And as the prices continue to rise, a number of short products, which then lose value, would have to be sold. That should further fuel the rally.
According to the Goldberg analysis, institutional investors have reluctantly bought in the past few days, presumably because they had to. And private investors have even sold shares. Profit taking, the behavioral economist surmises. Conclusion: There is still plenty of capital available that can be invested or even some professional investors must be invested.
The high relevance of such sentiment surveys can best be explained at a glance. "Private investors speculate on falling prices – this could be a wrong decision" was the title in the middle of April after evaluation of the Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment. At that time, the Frankfurt benchmark was quoted at around 12,000 points, around 300 points below the current listing.
Wrong decisions may continue to affect the private sector. The higher the prices rise, the more they speculate on falling prices – an understandable reaction, but in the crowd rather the wrong one.
The behavior is evident from the Euwax sentiment of the Stuttgart stock exchange. This is based on real trades with leveraged products on the DAX and is trading at a new record low over the past 12 months. Even yesterday, the number of put products, which are gaining value when prices are falling, has increased significantly compared with call derivatives.
All this leads to the conclusion that as long as private investors at such a high level have put products in their custody accounts, there probably will not be much correction.
Look at the individual values
Deutsche Bank / Commerzbank: According to an insider, the talks between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are about to fail. "It probably comes down to a termination of the talks," said a person familiar with the matter Reuters. A final decision had not yet fallen. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank declined to comment. Commerzbank's share price fell by 1.7 percent, while Deutsche Bank's paper was initially in negative territory, but has since risen by more than one percent.
Wirecard: The underpaid payment service provider has significantly increased its profits in the past year. The bottom line was a net result of 347.4 million euros, an increase of just under 36 percent. Much more important: the auditors of Ernst & Young (EY) found no indications of major irregularities in their review of the Wirecard Annual Report. EY gave the payment service provider an unqualified opinion for 2018 despite the massive allegations made by an employee in Singapore. As a result, the stock is up just under two percent.
Bayer: In the midst of the lawsuit over the weed killer Glyphosat, the Monsanto acquisition is proving to be a driver of results at Bayer. In the first quarter, adjusted operating profit (Ebitda) increased by more than 44 percent to 4.2 billion euros. The shareholders like that, the paper is rising fast by more than three percent.
UBS: The Swiss bank has made less money in the first quarter due to declining income in asset management and the investment bank. The profit of the largest Swiss bank shrank at the beginning of the year, according to data from Thursday to $ 1.14 billion after $ 1.57 billion in the same period last year. However, UBS, which was the second major European bank after Credit Suisse for the first quarter of 2091, performed better than expected by analysts. The stock rises on the German stock market by more than 1.3 percent.
Delivery Hero: Thanks to higher orders, the food delivery service posted a jump in sales of 93 percent to 267 million euros in the first quarter. In view of this, the Executive Board is now more optimistic for the full year and expects sales of between 1.1 and 1.2 billion euros instead of 1.08 to 1.15 billion. The share price reacts with a plus of more than four percent. The title is the biggest winner in MDax.
What the charting says
The Dax left an important mark ahead of yesterday's trading session with a close above 12,300 points: the 12,300-point range is important because it is the downtrend line that has its start point with the high for the year beginning in early 2018 (13,596).
"If here and now no profit taking, price reset, consolidations or corrections should be done, then 'good night Marie' for all bears," says the free chart technician Holger Struck.
The next target is 12,458 points ahead, the high from the month of September as the next resistance. "This is basically a rise to the historic high of January 2018 in the 13,600er range back to the disposition, something so what the US indices have long done," say the technical analysts of the Dusseldorf Bank HSBC.
Theme: Market Reports
Resets below the 12,000 mark would be completely problem free from a bullish point of view. From the point of view of charting technology, as long as the leading index remains above 11,938 points, the prospects for further price increases are positive.
Why are 11,938 points so important? The mark is the 50 percent correction from the downtrend since the all-time high of 13,596 points to the multi-year all-time low of 10,279 points at the end of December 2018. The most stable support is around 11,700 points where the 38- and 200-day lines run.
For longer-term investors, take a look at the 200-day line: Almost always, the Dax continued to rise for a longer period of time after overcoming that 200-day line. The average is currently trading at 11,687 points with a still slightly decreasing trend. In a few trading days, this line should rise again, which is considered as a signal for a longer-lasting uptrend
A true flood of numbers spills over from the US. In the auto industry lays the last -stretched Ford Group before his numbers. Also on the calendar: Southwest Airlines, UPS, Rockwell and 3M. After-hours are still numbers from T-Mobile, Mattel, Intel and the commercial giant Amazon.
Stock market view in USA and Asia
Mixed company accounts kept the US exchanges in check this Wednesday. All three major indices fell slightly after the recent rally. The Dow Jones Index of Standards closed 0.2 percent lower at 26,597 points. The broader S & P 500 dropped 0.2 percent to 2,927 meters. The index of the technology exchange Nasdaq also fell by 0.2 percent to 8102 points.
After a temporary crash in the fall, technology stocks once again dominated the S & P 500 and largely contributed to the rally on Wall Street. An important role is played by the well-known FAANG stocks: Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and the Google mother Alphabet. Since the beginning of the year, they have risen from a good 20 percent (alphabet) to 40 percent (Facebook).
Fears over the global economy weighed on stock markets in Asia on Thursday. The MSCI index for Asian equities outside Japan fell 0.2 percent. In Tokyo, however, the Nikkei index rose by 0.4 percent to 22,281.
Watch the pros – and be warned about short selling
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