Dax is on a consolidation course – Trump's statements on punitive tariffs are only a short-term burden

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Dusseldorf For the Dax It was a very good week: On Monday, he exceeded the 13,000-point mark, then it went steadily uphill – up to 13.3000 points. Now investors take profits and push the stock market barometer slightly into the minus.

So far, this consolidation has been minimal: at the end, the Dax was 0.5 percent down on 13,228 points.

For a brief sense of uncertainty, statements made by US President Donald Trump on the tariff dispute with China. Trump said Friday he had not agreed to a gradual phasing out of the penalties imposed on each other. China would like that, said Trump.

On the stock markets, the Dax then expanded its losses and then fell by 0.7 percent to a daily low of 13,195 points. But after that, purchases started again.

In this situation, investors also resorted to the safe-haven government bonds. Yields on ten-year Bunds fell in turn to minus 0.260 from minus 0.245 percent.

But currently there is little that speaks for a major, long-lasting correction: not only from Germany Export industry is getting good news. It can defy the weakness on the world markets apparently: In September 2019 goods "Made in Germany" worth 114.2 billion euros were sold abroad, which are so 4.6 percent more than a year earlier,

Also in trade conflict between the USA and China exists all-clear, There is growing evidence that relaxation is in sight. The US and China want to gradually reverse the two-way tariff. Latest downer: In Washington, there is apparently opposition to the agreement.

Robert Halver, Head of Capital Market Analysis at the Baader Bank, therefore sees "the glass half full": "The repatriation of the US punitive tariffs levied on September 1 in return for China's significant influx of US agricultural commodities would be a notable relaxation signal," he says. And the economic expectations for the next six months have already brightened over all global economic regions. These are positive outlooks for the stock markets, which are known to "pay the future," as Halver puts it.

Even the view of the Dax fundamentals shows no overheating despite the rapid increase since the beginning of October. The price-earnings ratio of currently 14.3 is just above the mean of 13. The dividend yield is 3.1 percent, the ten-year average is around 3.5 percent.

Before the new elections in the UK in mid-December, more and more pound investors are pulling back. The motto drops to a three-week low of $ 1.2780 and is heading for a weekly loss of about one percent.

Look at the individual values

Alliance: The Munich insurance giant is once again heading for a record profit. The operating result will be between 11.5 and 12.0 billion euros this year, said the Alliance on Friday. So far, the lower limit of the expectation had been at eleven billion euros. Analysts even expect an average of 12.1 billion euros. Shareholders prefer to take profits: The price is currently 2.7 percent to 219 euros.

RWE: At the Essen-based energy group, investors are turning to the future price development after a positive analyst estimate. The share price rises by one percent to 26.18 euros.

SMA Solar: Investors take advantage of the recent price slide to get started. The shares of the solar technology group gained 9.3 percent, after they had fallen on Thursday in the face of a drop in profits by twelve percent.

What the charting says

On the way to the all-time high of 13,597 points, the German leading index has also overcome the last important resistance at around 13,200 points. In this area, for example, the highs of the months of May and June of the stock market year 2018. In May of last year was at 13,204 meters out, in the month of June after reaching 13,170 points clear sales.

According to chart technology, the way to the previous record high is free. What speaks against it, is the rapid increase of ten percent in just four weeks without significant breathers. This is not healthy from the point of view of technical analysis and rather a harbinger of a major correction.

On the downside, the upside gap from the weekly startup is the first major pullback mark. Such gaps in the price (technical jargon: Gap) arise when the highest price one day remains below that of the following day.

Specifically: Last Friday, the Dax rose to 12,992 meters on Monday, the lowest price was 13,019 points.

Such gaps then serve as resistance. If they are not closed, that's a sign of strength.

One floor down, the next resistance is at 12,500 meters. Below is the 200-day line, a gauge for the long-term uptrend. This average line is currently trading at 12,025 points and rising by around ten points per day.

It would not be uncommon for the Dax to fall close to this line during a major correction that is likely to take place after the significant gains in recent days and weeks.

Analysts Check: Credit Suisse Target price of Hannover Re at

The Swiss bank Credit Suisse has raised the price target for Hannover Re according to numbers from 135 to 165 euros, but left the rating on "neutral". Analyst Farooq Hanif referred in a study available on Thursday, especially on the strong net result of the reinsurer in the third quarter. Even if one-time effects were involved, the basic earnings picture looks better than expected.

The current price is 166.30 euros. The average weighted twelve-month price target of 28 analysts constantly monitoring the value reaches € 136.11, well below the current price. Still, the majority of analysts recommend keeping the stock. Only twelve out of 28 advise for sale. However, nobody gives a buy recommendation.

Here it goes to the side with the Dax Course, here are the current tops & flops in Dax, current short sales Investors can be found in our Database on short sales,

With agency material.

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