Dax takes the last hurdle on the way to the record high – financial professionals follow the courses


Dusseldorf Positive company data keeps that Dax on its record course: The German leading index marked 13,300 points on Thursday, a new high for the year, the third within four days. The index was last at this level in February 2018. At the close of trading, the Frankfurt benchmark stood at 13,289 points.

Compared with the closing price of 13,180 points on Wednesday evening, the Dax is once again up 0.8 percent. The previous year's high of 13,187 points was set up yesterday.

One reason for today's price increase: The gap between the mood of private and institutional investors has widened and reached an almost dramatic level. This statement comes Joachim Goldberg after evaluation of the investor survey of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.

The mood of the financial professionals is massively worse than that of private investors. From this the behavioral economist concludes that the institutional investors are clearly underinvested and given the ongoing rally in larger numbers "go wrong",

According to the survey, they would already be with one Retreats to last week's level at around 12,900 pointsto make up for missed purchases. According to the laws of investor sentiment, this situation is more likely to signal further increases in prices. "The Dax is only threatened if long-term oriented international investors decide to turn their backs on the eurozone's shares," says Goldberg.

Also a Looking at dividend yields speaks for stocks, Although yields on Bunds have recovered somewhat from their lows, almost all negative returns are evident. The ten-year Bund yields currently at minus 0.242 percent.

Even the riskier corporate bonds are hardly yielding, so investors turn back to the individual stocks. Your dividend yield is currently well above bond rates for many DAX companies.

Currently offers Daimler with 6.1 percent the most attractive dividend yield of the 30 titles, But also the values ​​of BMW with 4.8 percent, the German Telekom with 4.2 percent and Siemens with 3.6 percent can be seen.

Also interesting: For the first time since the beginning of 2008, ten-year bonds from Italy are losing more than their Greek counterparts. The yield premium is 5.1 basis points. Fearing new political turmoil in Italy, investors are withdrawing from the country, pushing bond yields higher. By contrast, Greek papers are in demand thanks to the local economic reforms.

The news that German companies throttled production more sharply than expected in September did not spoil the mood of investors today. Industry, construction and energy providers put together 0.6 percent less than in the previous month, informed the Federal Ministry of Economics. Economists had expected only a minus of 0.4 percent.

Despite the weak production data from the industry, Germany could escape a macroeconomic but a technical recession, hopes Andreas Scheuerle of the Dekabank. "Because it is indicative of zero growth, mainly thanks to the good development in retail."

Also, the unexpected delay in signing a trade agreement between the US and China seems to bother investors here. While prices on the Asian stock exchanges and on Wall Street barely made any headway due to renewed uncertainties, German investors are reacting positively to the news from China that they have agreed with the US on a phasing out of punitive tariffs.

This will really support the economy, says portfolio manager Thomas Altmann of the trading house QC Partners. "Especially in the current euphoric environment, this news falls on very fertile ground."

Look at the individual values

Lufthansa: The airline is laying off a savings program due to the continuing decline in profits at its subsidiaries Austrian and Brussels Airlines as well as in the freight business. As the market environment becomes increasingly difficult, the companies would have to improve their performance with little profit or loss, said CFO Ulrik Svensson.

Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), adjusted for special effects, fell by eight percent year-on-year to almost 1.3 billion euros, despite a slight increase in sales between July and September. Investors took the stock and raised them to sixth with an increase of 6.8 percent of Dax winners.

Munich Re: In spite of high hurricane damage, the Munich reinsurer earned even more in the third quarter than it had previously promised. The bottom line was a profit of 865 million euros, 79 percent more than in the same period last year and 15 million euros more than the Group had announced in October.

The profit and revenue expectations for the full year 2019 have been raised. Shareholders responded positively, the share price after a good start last quasi unchanged at 251.80 euros.

Siemens: The industrial group braved in the last quarter of 30.9. the end of the financial year to meet the growing headwinds of the economy and reached its targets. The operating result from the industrial business rose slightly to 8.99 (previous year: 8.86) billion euros.

Quarterly revenues and earnings exceeded analyst expectations. Net income for the year as a whole shrank by eight percent to 5.6 billion euros despite a significantly lower tax burden. Nevertheless, the Siemens shareholders should receive a dividend increased by ten cents to 3.90 euros.

Investors liked this news: The stock was in demand, the price rose by 4.9 percent.

Telekom: After growing in the first nine months, the Bonn-based company has raised its annual forecast. The operating profit should now be at 24.1 billion euros after previously targeted 23.9 billion euros, the company said on Thursday.

The stock price did not benefit, the price fell by two percent.

Commerzbank: The financial house says goodbye to its forecast for 2019 despite a jump in earnings in the third quarter. However, the dividend should be kept. Shareholders acknowledged this with a price drop of 0.2 percent.

What the charting says

On the way to the all-time high of 13,597 points, the German leading index has also overcome the last important resistance at around 13,200 points. In this area, for example, the highs of the months of May and June of the stock market year 2018. In May of last year was at 13,204 meters out, in the month of June after reaching 13,170 points clear sales.

According to chart technology, the way to the previous record high is free. What speaks against is the rapid increase of ten in just four weeks without significant breathers. This is not healthy from the point of view of technical analysis and rather a harbinger of a major correction.

On the downside, the upside gap from the weekly startup is the first major pullback mark. Such gaps in the price (technical jargon: Gap) arise when the highest price one day remains below that of the following day.

Specifically: Last Friday, the Dax rose to 12,992 meters on Monday, the lowest price was 13,019 points.

Such gaps then serve as resistance. If they are not closed, that's a sign of strength.

One floor down, the next resistance is at 12,500 meters. Below is the 200-day line, a gauge for the long-term uptrend. This average line is currently trading at 12,014 points and rising daily by about ten points.

It would not be uncommon for the Dax to fall close to this line during a major correction that is likely to take place after the significant gains in recent days and weeks.

Analysts check: RBC raises price target of BMW

The analysis house RBC has raised the price target for BMW after quarterly figures from 74 to 77 euros, the classification but on "Sector Perform" leave. The revenues outside the auto sector had exceeded his expectations, analyst Tom Narayan wrote in a study available on Wednesday.

However, with regard to the costs in the coming year, the expert showed caution. Currently the price is 74.50. The weighted price recommendation on a twelve-month view of a total of 36 analysts watching the Munich-based car maker is 69.12 euros.

The RBC experts agree with the majority opinion: 22 analysts recommend to hold the stock, seven would buy, and just as many advise for sale.

Click here for the Handelsblatt analyst check.

Here it goes to the side with the Dax Course, here are the current tops & flops in Dax, current short sales Investors can be found in our Database on short sales,

With agency material.

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