The money changers opened yesterday, but they refrained from buying or selling dollars, because they did not report, in the words of one of them, the exchange rate that should be followed in banking operations, knowing that banking activity on the black market remained active yesterday, although prices retreated from the height of 4300 pounds against the dollar To 3900 pounds yesterday, while the exchange rate with banks is still at 3000 pounds and money transfer companies at 3200 pounds.
Why is the path of the devaluation of the lira exchange rate deviated from the black market and what are the expectations for the coming period?
The former head of the Banking Supervision Committee, Samir Hammoud, saw that with the beginning of the deterioration of the exchange rate of the lira, he warned the money-changers about the way they work, which will ultimately lead to their damage, as the demand for the dollar is very large and results from the need of importers, and from storing dollars in homes, In exchange for a small offer for the dollar, and it is declining, because its only source has become the remittances of expatriates for their families in Lebanon. Consequently, Hammoud explained to the money changers that raising the dollar exchange rate to the highest levels will not lead to an increase in supply, because it does not follow, in light of the current crisis, the market rules that provide for an increase in the supply with an increase in the exchange rate, due to the limited supply and the inability to increase it, no matter how high The exchange rate of the dollar, as a result of the freezing of $ 100 billion in banks.
Hammoud said to “Al-Gomhoria”, “The dollar is missing today, neither at the price of 3,200 pounds, nor at the price of 4,000 pounds. The dollar exchange rate will not return to retreat before the return of money to Lebanon returns, the tourism sector regains its health, and financial transfers return to Lebanon in the form of deposits, not for personal consumption.” As is the case today, but unfortunately there is no possibility in light of the current conflict. “
He emphasized, “The launching of the electronic platform of the Bank of Lebanon, which will determine the daily exchange rate for the dollar, which will be adopted in the parallel market, and the accountability of anyone who violates it by the licensed money changers, will be completed.”
Stressing that starting the platform does not mean saving dollars in the market at all, but rather fixing and fixing the price of it, which is estimated today at about 5 million dollars a day compared to 10 million dollars previously. He pointed out that the market need now stands at about 600 million dollars a month, retreating from about one billion dollars in the past, noting that there are currently only 150 million dollars.
Hammoud pointed out that the Bank of Lebanon is carrying out interventions in the money market, although this contradicts its convictions and its capabilities, and it plays this role in spite of it, despite its knowledge that the demand for the dollar exceeds twice the supply, and therefore supply cannot balance with demand in the foreseeable future.
He concluded by stressing that this reality, i.e. the lack of dollars, will reflect a decline in imports and a shortage of commodities on the market.