After the presidential elections, the dollar closed its worst week in Colombia and was only $ 100 from its all-time high. The exchange rate reacted with volatility to the arrival of Gustavo Petro to the House of Nariño. Nevertheless, experts point out that the currency would stabilize in the coming months.
The anxiety over the monetary policies that the incoming government will implement altered the dynamics of the market. That speculation caused the US currency to hit a price close to 4,150 pesoswhich set off the alarms because that figure had not been recorded since the start of the pandemic, in March 2020.
Dollar would close this year at $3,924 in Colombia
According to an expert analysis by BBVA Research for Bloomberg Line, the dollar average for 2022 will be the highest in recent years. Nevertheless, the currency would gradually stabilize in the coming months to reach a value below $4,000.
“This behavior is transitory and should gradually resume a path towards $3,900 from the close […]. The dollar average for the year will be the highest in our history, this follows from a context of faster withdrawal of stimuli at the global level and of an external imbalance with a high current account deficit for international standards”, explained the experts.
Likewise, that medium reports that the projections indicate that the dollar will continue to experience fluctuations (increase and decrease alternately) due to a global trend in which banks are raising their interest rates and decreasing the liquidity of money.
For its part, Credicorp Capital indicated that certain scenarios would take the Colombian peso to a range of between $3,740, in the best of cases, up to $5,000 in the event that some policies considered radical are implemented.
The bleakest scenario is configured in the event that oil exploration is closed, a pension reform is launched that affects private funds and a Treasury cabinet is defined that does not reassure businessmen.
However, the scenario of between $3,740 and $4,020 seems to prevail in the event that economic proposals “with a low impact on foreign investment, without limiting key productive industries” are carried out, while developing the tax and pension reforms.