Dollar Yen “Possibility of Falling to 130 Yen” Mid-term Technical Analysis Shows Future US Dollar Outlook 2022/11/25 – Money Education Channel

table of contents

▼Plummeted to the 139 yen level following the results of the November manufacturing/service industry PMI
▼ Check the dollar-yen exchange rate with technical analysis
▼Points to be aware of when trading USD/JPY

Plunge to the 139 yen level in response to the results of the US manufacturing/services PMI in November

The US dollar/yen pair fell sharply from the upper 140 yen level to the 139 yen level after the release of the US November Manufacturing/Service Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on November 23rd. After that, the selling pressure increased and it is currently (11/25 15:00) at the 138 yen level.

Check the dollar yen exchange rate with technical analysis

After confirming the current situation with technical analysis, it seems that the focus will be on whether the 137 yen level will become support or break below the same level.
Currently, the Fibonacci retracement from this year’s high (October: 151.94 yen) to the low (January: 113.46 yen) has been supported around the 137 yen level with a 38.2% push, and the 142 yen level has temporarily fallen. recovered. However, on the weekly chart, the 20-week moving average (SMA) suppressed the upper price and pushed back to the 138 yen level again. Since the last candlestick has a long negative line on the upper side, it has become a shape that makes it difficult to extend the upper price.
Also, looking at the RSI (Relative Strength Index), it is located near the 50 line and the strength of the rise and fall is flat. It’s the place. If it bounces back, it will challenge the 20-week moving average line to break out, but if it breaks down, it may drop to around 133 yen, which is Fibonacci half-price.

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Points to be aware of when trading USD/JPY

Looking at the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart (daily chart), the sell signal for a three-way reversal* is lit, and it seems that the market will continue to have a downward advantage until it surpasses the recent high of 142.20 yen. As mentioned above, if the price continues to fall, it is important to ascertain the direction of whether the price will bounce back from the 137 yen level or break below the same level.

*The conversion line (green) breaks below the reference line (purple), the candlestick breaks below the cloud, and the lagging span (peach) breaks below the candlestick

About the author

Sohei Uehara, a researcher at Research Institute, presents forecast price movements and forecasts FX exchange rates in a way that is easy for beginners to understand.

💬 Sohei Uehara: Twitter

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Researcher, Research Department, Research Institute
Shuhei Uehara
Entered the financial industry in 2015 and engaged in customer support. She also works as a lecturer at financial seminars. During that time, she felt that she needed the ability to analyze price fluctuations in order to predict future market movements, so she obtained the International Federation of Technical Analysts Certified Technical Analyst (CFTe). After that, she joined Research Institute Co., Ltd. in February 2022 to convey the charm of the foreign exchange market that continues to fluctuate 24 hours a day. Currently, he is energetically disseminating information to FX individual investors while making use of his experience and knowledge.

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