Donald Trump: Avoid the war against Iran at almost all costs


So A lot of beer like Friday night should no longer be drunk in the White House park. "Summer shandy" by Wiscosin and "Fat Tire" by Colorado were served here to numerous guests. Several tents and tables have been set up all round, a military band has played. President Donald Trump had invited the traditional "picnic" for members of the United States Congress and their families. About 200 parliamentarians, republicans and democrats were expected. At the "picnic", the executive and the legislator must exchange views; Politicians, officials, employees and family members enter into conversation.

Donald Trump and his wife Melania Trump greet guests at the traditional conference picnic

Donald Trump and his wife Melania Trump greet guests at the traditional conference picnic


Although relaxed and sociable during the "picnic", President Trump has tried so hard to cover up the deep crisis between the United States and Iran. During his speech from the White House balcony, flanked by his wife Melania, Vice President Mike Pence and his wife Karen, Trump thanked members of Congress and their wives for the work they did on Friday night. He called for democracy, he talked about creating new jobs. Trump praised the well-functioning economy, highlighted the fight against drug addiction and financial assistance to farmers. He did not say a word about the recent events in the Middle East and the attack just avoided against Iran the day before. Instead, Trump invited his guests, "Stay as long as you want and have fun." The White House is a "magnificent place", especially at night.

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What happened in the last hours and days in the White House is only partially known. The New York Times, for example, reported Trump's ten-minute military deterrent against Iran, prompting the president to accuse the "desperate" newspaper of "false" Twitter news on Friday morning. Shortly thereafter, Trump sent a tweet in which he said he had interrupted the planned attack ten minutes before Thursday to avoid 150 deaths.

Spontaneous and irregular governance in the White House?

In Trump's tendency to distort the facts, this description can be doubted. Did the president really know the possible number of deaths so close to the planned implementation? After all, these predictions are always a briefing in the US military. In any case, Trump's "ten minutes" reinforce the already prevalent impression that the White House is governed spontaneously and erroneously. Trump's former defense secretary and four-star general James Mattis risk (again and again) clapping their hands on such management.

Just during the dangerous crisis, the Ministry of Defense is practically a leader. Pentagon chief Patrick Shanahan will leave his post on Sunday. Shanahan resigned from his post, giving up his recent Senate approval – following massive acts of violence within his own family. So it has long been a "lame duck", a lame duck. The designated defense minister Mark Esper again, he is not yet in charge. In turn, both would have had to attend the recent briefing. But who has the last word in defense at the moment?

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United States President Donald Trump rides in Moon Township, Pennsylvania, United States, March 10, 2018. REUTERS / Joshua Roberts - HP1EE3B03J6AX

While the Pentagon has been deemed weakened within the government in recent months, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has gained influence. How this relationship will develop in the future is uncertain. Spicy: Esper, formerly chief of the army, and Pompey were once classmates at the West Point high-level military academy. In the past, Pompey, like John Bolton, Trump's national security adviser, had argued for an extremely tough position against Iran.

Most citizens do not want new military operations

Trump can only partially enjoy. Although it has increased economic pressure on Tehran with sanctions, it must avoid a war against Iran at almost all prices for domestic and electoral reasons. The pressure on him is great, the recent polls see him in direct confrontation behind various possible democratic competitors. The president cannot afford another, potentially many lives and billions of expensive military adventures – certainly no less than a year and a half before the elections. Trump's central promise was to end US military involvement. Its "America first" isolationist policy is extremely popular among its regular customers.

Moreover, most Americans do not want new military operations. As a result, the leaders of the opposition Democrats express themselves. On Thursday, congressional Republican and Democratic leaders were informed about the Iranian situation, including the majority leader of Republican senators, Mitch McConnell and Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the Democratic Chamber. Pelosi called on Twitter on FridayIn this extremely dangerous situation with Iran, a decreasing response is necessary. The war required congressional approval. This position is, today, completely unrealistic.

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Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer

This is true, especially since there is also a clear skepticism in the republican establishment towards a new military operation. Revealing is an interview that Tucker Carlson, one of Trump's favorite presenters, at the "Fox News" station recently conducted a former military man. Here, Carlson said that Trump is strictly against a conflict with Iran, he knows that this does not serve American interests. The people who worked for Trump, but put the United States in a position where war is likely. "Fox" in this context showed video clips with Bolton. "The wars destroy the presidencies," the former soldiers said, and Carlson agreed. People do not support such a war, he said the former military. "Exactly," said Carlson. A war caused that China, Russia, India and European countries lined up with Iran, said the former military, invoking diplomacy, rapprochement and detente in Iran.

Will Trump separate soon from Bolton?

Trump probably saw this brief interview, as the president still wants to talk to Tehran about the future of their nuclear program. It is not right for his security consultant Bolton to have sought regime change in Tehran for years. Should Trump leave Bolton soon? In the current situation, where Trump fights so unusually widely, it seems to be entirely possible.

Only recently, Trump meanwhile, a television reporter according to the leadership of Tehran has again signaled his willingness to speak. He was open to talks with state spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or President Hassan Ruhani, Trump said today, according to an NBC journalist who was following a Trump interview at the US station. There are no preconditions for the talks, Trump said in the interview.

Trump doesn't want a war

According to Iranian insiders, Trump had previously told the country of Oman that he did not want a war, but talks. He set a short deadline for an answer. Iran has also responded directly to Oman, stating that a decision was made by Ayatollah Khamenei. The president of the United States also consulted with the Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman in the Iran case, as announced by the White House on Friday.

The UN Secretary General, António Guterres, has asked the United States and Iran to avoid any escalation of the difficult situation in the Gulf. Both should preserve "the nerves of the steel," said UN spokesman Stéphane Dujarric on Friday. The general secretary is convinced that dialogue is the best way to alleviate tensions and stop an escalation. The United Nations was in contact with both sides of the conflict and demanded moderation in both public and private talks.

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An accident that is part of the history of a war

Dujarric announced that Guterres will attend the G-20 Summit in Osaka next week. But it was not clear if he would meet Trump there. Tensions have increased dramatically since Iran brought down an American drone that was in Iranian airspace from the perspective of the Islamic Republic. The United States, on the other hand, claimed to have flown over international waters.

with dpa and AFP

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