Due to the recession, inflation in November slowed to 3.2% (compared to 44% in 2018) – Ambito.com


Compared to November of last year, the consumer price index (CPI) rose to 48.5%.

November data exceeded the predictions of private consultants, who had estimated an increase between 2.5% and 2.9%.

"Despite exceeding 3%, inflation it slowed significantly compared to the two months of September-October, when it was on average 6% per month. This dynamic has responded to the recent stabilization of the dollar and the dilution of the exchange rate effect rise at the end of August, together with a lower rise in regulated prices (They have increased by only 2.8%, driven by increases in transport) ", explained a report by Ecolatina.

The articles that have increased the most were: health, with 5.7%; alcoholic beverages and tobacco, with 4.6%; equipment and home maintenance, 3.6% and food and beverages, 3.4%.

In the meantime, eThe communications sector grew by 3%; recreation and culture, 2.8% and restaurants and hotels, 2.6%.

Among the items that have increased the most were: crush even, with 48.3%; potato, 31.2%; still yoghurt, 21.4%; delicious apple, 13.7%; beer, 13.6% and lemon, 10.2%.

On the other hand, core inflation – which contains prices that do not behave seasonally or are regulated by the state or with a high tax burden – was 3.3% in the month, down from 6, 1% average for the two-month period. over it.

According to the Statistical Workers' Institute (EIT), the cost of living of unionized salaried workers increased by 2.9% monthly in November and therefore has reached an increase of 47.2% in the last twelve months.

On the other hand, the center of Orlando Ferreres economic studies calculated that the November inflation was 2.5% monthly. He pointed out that the items with the highest incidence were "Food and beverages, along with various goods", with an adjustment of 2.5% and 5.8%, respectively.

Despite the slowdown in inflation, the year will end with a general price increase of between 45% and 50%, one of the highest rates in the world and comparable to what happened in 1991.

What will happen in the coming months

The adjustment of relative prices will be an inflationary factor in the coming months, since then there are variables that have been nominally left behind with respect to the rest and they will make an offer to recover the lost ground (to the extent that the demand allows them), said Ecolatina. Therefore, even if the exchange rate remains contained, inflation will remain high, in this case for inertial reasons.

In this context, the consultant estimated that in the last month of the year prices will increase by about 3%, end 2018 with inflation of about 48% i.a.

Furthermore, the start of 2019 will be hectic. First, because the workers will try to rebuild the lost purchasing power this year.

Moreover, expected rises in regulated prices (water in January, electricity in February, metro in the first two months and gas in April, in addition to fuel increases). As a result, even if there are no jumps on the exchange front, inflation would average 2.5% in the first four months of the following year, projected in private.



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