The USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health released preliminary results of a joint scientific study on Monday, suggesting that infections with the new coronavirus in L.A.
Counties are much more common – and the mortality rate is much lower than previously thought. The results come from the first round of an ongoing study by USC researchers and district health officials.
Over time, they will perform antibody tests on a number of representative samples from adults to determine the extent and spread of the pandemic in the county. Based on the results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the adult population the county has an antibody to the virus.
Adjusting this estimate for the statistical margin of error indicates that approximately 2.8% to 5.6% of the adult population of the county has an antibody to the virus – this corresponds to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who were infected .
This estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the district at the time of the study in early April.
The count of COVID-related deaths in the county has now passed the 600 mark. ”We do not know the true extent of COVID-19 infections in our community because we only tested people with symptoms and the availability of tests was limited ”Said chief investigator Neeraj Sood, professor of public policy at the USC Price School for Public Policy and senior fellow at the USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics.
The estimates also suggest that we may need to recalibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies. ”What do the antibody test results mean for COVID-19 control? The results have important …