electoral scenarios and the economic crisis

With less than 100 days to go before the PASO, the meetings between men in the market, consultants, analysts and pollsters are intensifying (despite the meager performance of recent years), and in many of these face-to-face and virtual meetings the plight of the former president is revealed. Mauricio Macri for dropping his candidacy. They say that he was badly advised and they confused him.

The PRO leader waited for the economic explosion as they had led him to believe would happen to decide whether or not to compete. He also expected to see how he played Cristina. But he hurried and today he is one more at the small table. His resignation instead of ordering the internal opposition made it more complicated.

Meanwhile, the libertarian Javier Miley it rubs its hands and continues to gain ground, consolidating a third political space that, unlike other historical experiences, this time can not only compete, but win. This is discussed in these meetings where the beginning of the high season of provincial elections was emphasized.

In the middle, the political noise that involved the head of national statistics, Marco Lavagna, who in a kind of coven in the Palacio de Hacienda almost led to his stepping aside as a result of the farce of the CPI release date of April.

Some noise around withholdings on wheat, about supposed elimination taking a workhorse out of the opposition in the electoral campaign. They say men close to the economic team who are evaluating it. But nothing sure because from the Patria plant they don’t digest it.

If the two parties that lead the ruling party and the opposition agree on something, it is the fear of losing in their territory. Moreover, to lose their natural territory. In the PRO they tremble just thinking that they can be left out of CABA. The same in Kirchnerism, but in relation to Buenos Aires.

A lot of surveys and crossed data and speculations about the chances of a possible ballot, but also the economic crisis concentrates the attention of the participants in these meetings..

markets in the world

In relation to the world, what is most relevant passes through the Fed and what will it continue to do with the interest rate, now that problems continue to appear in small and regional banks. For the experts, there will be no more rate hikes in the US. This is at least what the market is discounting, after the Fed raised the rate 25 basis points to 5%-5.25%, the highest since 2007.

According to fed fund futures, the market gives a 96% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates at the current level during its June meeting. The consensus even assigns a 4% chance that the Fed will cut them in its next monetary conclave, something that Jerome Powell strongly denied. In addition, facing the end of the year, the market anticipates a cumulative cut of 75 basis points. We’ll see if they’re right this time.


Undoubtedly, what happens in the foreign exchange market is what worries our own and others the most. Is it coming to August? Not only because of the PASO, but because the high season for agricultural export sales ends there. Private simulations show that not even the import tourniquet is enough, and the mountain of foreign trade debt becomes difficult to comply with.

There are no reservations. There is no case. An economist, to whom the IMF missions usually resort to check numbers, estimated that all the announcements of organizations that grant new credits or advance disbursements should add up to no less than 4,000 to 4,500 million dollars to be able to face what is coming.

This year, the IMF must be paid net 4 lucas, the organizations another 4 lucas and the bondholders are missing. If the organisms release 4 Lucas, then the year is covered and the BCRA does not lose reserves, otherwise it is clearer to throw water on it. And you have to pay 2 Lucas (from the reserves because there is no other way) to the bondholders who entered the Martín Guzmán swap in 2020. 1,000 million were already paid in January and another 1,000 million is still to be paid in July. Regarding the failed Guzmán, in the market when they refer to his economic management they say that it was that of a bachelor talking about marital problems. Words strike.

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