Ending the Iranian sanctions waiver could be own goal for Trump World news


The past two and a bit years have shown that it is naive to expect Donald Trump's strategic and economic policies to demonstrate coherence. Even so, the lack of joined-up thinking in the decision to end the waiver against sanctions from nations that buy oil from Iran takes some beating.

For a start, there is the impact of threatening to prevent Iranian oil from reaching the global market. That led to the cost of crude trading just shy of $ 75 to barrel on the world's commodities markets – its highest this year.

Dear Fuel Fuel Raise Costs and Eat into Consumer Spending Power, and Meant Weak Growth – Damaging Trump's 2020 Re-Election Chances – Unless Another Producer Makes The Iranian Shortfall. The White House is banking on Saudi Arabia increasing its output, but there is no guarantee that it will, without hard evidence that supply from Iran has actually been hit. The oil price is likely to head towards $ 80 a barrel in the coming weeks.

Even then, it assumes Trump is right to think Iran seems to be highly questionable. It is just as likely that tightening the screw on the Iranian economy will support the hard work and make the region even more unstable than it already is.

Tehran has responded to the US action by pledging to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which is shipped from all the major Middle Eastern suppliers, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates. Were that to happen, the oil price would quickly shoot above $ 100 a barrel.

Then there is the fact that trump is in effect telling China – the biggest Iranian oil importer – that is only a business with certain countries with the prior approval of Washington DC. That is more than a hint of imperialistic hubris about it and would be asking for trouble at the best of times. It is plain to be laid down on the law of Beijing.

The financial cost of terror attacks

The economic impact of the bombings in Sri Lanka have featured little in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks, and rightly so. When more than 300 people have died, attention has focused on human tragedy and security lapses.

Sri Lankan economy that is highly vulnerable to collapse in the number of overseas visitors.

Since the end of the civil war a decade ago, the number of people attracted by Sri Lanka's mix of beaches, culture and wildlife has increased sixfold. Tourism accounts for a hefty 11% of national output.

The number of visitors will now inevitably dwindle. As Gareth Leather of Capital Economics has noted, the risk of a trip to Bali fell by 40% after the 2002 bombings and it took two years to return to pre-attack levels. Egypt suffered an even bigger decline after the bombing of a Russian plane in the Sinai peninsula in 2015. Tourist numbers dropped by 50% and took three years to recover.

On the basis that Sri Lanka suffers from similar-sized fall in tourism, 3.2% to 1% this year. The government will need to provide rapid reassurance to overseas visitors because of the scope of the fiscal policy. debt mean the central bank is likely to respond to downward pressure on the rupee by raising interest rates.

Shareholder power at Barclays

It’s amazing how a bit of shareholder activism can concentrate minds. Barclays is cracking down on pay at arm investment, insisting that bonuses should be closely tied to performance.

The City, that would be a par for the course. But it amounts to a change of heart for Barclays which, under previous management in 2014 said, had to increase bonuses, despite falling profits, or face to "death spiral".

But back then Barclays was not faced with an investor like Edward Bramson, who has built up at 5.5% stakes in the bank and is trying to force his way onto the board. Now, apparently, a death spiral is worth the risk.



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