esk zbrojovka Group: estimates for 1H 2021 (supplemented by a thorn consensus)

27.9.2021 09:55, BAACZGCE

The arms manufacturer esk zbrojovka Group (CZG) on Wednesday the 29th from the open market will announce the results for the first half of the year. A conference call with the company’s management will follow from 4 p.m.

Estimates of management for 1H 2021
thousand. K 1H 2021 Market consensus * 1H 2020

and / and

Vnosy 4532 4605 3363 34,8%
EBITDA 952 963 875 8,8%
EBIT 715 723 676 5,8%
is zisk
586 583 382 53,4%
Earnings per share (K)
17,4 11,3 53,4%

* medin according to CZG research

The strong first quarter and its wall contribution from the American Colt, according to our opinion, will be the main influences, due to which CZG in the first half of the year will see high growth in all equal farms.

If the dynamics of the American arms market in 2Q were no longer as strong as v1Q, so for the whole of 1H 2021 the US market should be the main driver of the Czech armory. Without Colt, we expect a quarterly increase in the US by about 14% to 2662 million K.

Losk covid’s wave and the related spring lockdown of the European economy at the time in the spring severely hampered sales to EU countries. This should not happen again this year, so sales to Europe are expected to have a positive impact on needs in 1H 2021, which we predict by 48% at 421 million K. Continuing the sunny demand for weapons in line with developing regions such as Africa and Asia, where CZG will probably continue in 2Q 2021 with the largest number of deliveries by armed forces. According to our estimates, sales from these two regions could record a sharp shift of EUR 320 million to a level of around K 587 million. for the whole of the first half of the year we will see a decrease in zlotys of 308 million K to about 116 million K, when the year 2Q recorded an exceptionally positive fluctuation in silver in the amount of 247 million K. Significant improvement in domestic sales should weapons esk armd.

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If the second quarter of the quarter would probably not be as prominent as the 1Q, resp. losk 2Q, so the total for the first half of the year esk zbrojovka especially maintains a positive economic trend. Thus, according to our predictions, revenues for 1H 2021 will record 35% year-on-year growth to K 4532 million, which could indicate a shift in EBITDA of profit of CZK 875 million to K 952 million (y / y + 8.8%). At the same profit for the first half of the year, we see a sharp year-on-year shift of 382 million K to 586 million K, when last year the financial results of the results were strongly negatively affected by non-cash exchange rate losses due to the significant depreciation of the koruna.

It will be appreciated that the management of CZG will not have a reason to change its insight into the needs, resp. EBITDA in the range of 10340 10640 mil. K, resp. 1990 2190 mil. K, and to leave the indication of the upper edge of the diff. This is in line with our current forecast around the limit of 10,000 million K, resp. in 2016, K million, which is due to both the two Colts joining the CZG Group and the strong dynamics of the US arms market from the beginning of this year.

Jan Raka, analyst, Fio banka, as

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