With Russia mobilizing forces, the transfer of NATO troops to Lithuania would begin
Called Suvalki Corridorwhich would not only be temporarily blocked if occupied NATO forces, but also the open land route to the Kaliningrad region has currently become the subject of various discussions.
But the probability that Russia can decide on an adventure and, having gathered forces to try to block this corridor, goes beyond reality. Journalist and political commentator Ivan Jakovina thinks so.
“The first reason is that Russia does not have enough troops in the Suwalki Corridor region. They are almost non-existent in Belarus and not so much deployed in the Kaliningrad region.
The second reason is that everything else Russian army part “stuck” for a very long time in Ukraine. Therefore, in order to transfer all this army from Ukraine to Belarus or Kaliningrad, it will certainly not be possible to do it unnoticed.
If such a redeployment of troops begins, I think the transfer of NATO forces to Lithuania will begin at the same time, the entire NATO leadership will understand what is happening here.
Therefore, I do not believe that Russia can start such a military operation. It has neither the capacity nor the possibilities for that”, – TV channel “Ukraine 24″ commentator I. Jakovina spoke on the air.
Having lost the war, Russia would say goodbye to Kaliningrad forever
At the moment, it is also being considered whether Russia can decide to attack Lithuania’s transport hubs, ports and railways with missiles, thus retaliating for the so-called Kaliningrad blockade. Especially since the country that started the war against Ukraine has the capacity to do so, it was recently fired upon by missiles Kiev.
“Bombing Lithuanian roads would mean an attack on a NATO country, which would mean an attack on all the countries of the NATO bloc. That’s it Turkeyand the United States of America, Norway etc. Therefore, NATO’s response will be incomparably more powerful than what Russia can do. Therefore, I would not really like to believe that Russia will take such a step”, thought journalist and political analyst I. Jakovina.
If military action does start, there is a very high probability that it will turn into a nuclear war. Russian strategists are also aware of this, and they should also assess the risk of losing this war.
“Russia needs the destruction of the Kaliningrad region, not the entire world. After losing the war Russian Federation would lose the Kaliningrad region, which would go to Lithuania, Poland ar for Germany. Thus, Russia would say goodbye to the Kaliningrad region forever”, said I. Yakovina and noted that the residents of Kaliningrad would be happy to join the Germany or Lithuania.
He does not believe that Russia is connected to a military adventure
Assessing Russia’s military capabilities for aggression against Lithuania, the reviewer mentioned that he had no doubt that Lithuania would quickly receive the support of NATO partners. This is proven by NATO’s solidarity with Ukraine, which is not even a member of this military bloc.
„Be to Lithuanian army is not so small – 20 thousand. soldiers, another 19 thousand reservists. In order to defeat such an army, even if Lithuania did not have the support of NATO partners, about 300,000 troops would be needed. soldiers Russia cannot send such a number of soldiers to Ukraine, let alone Lithuania.
In addition, Lithuania has the most modern weaponry and sufficiently effective air support of the allies.
I can’t even imagine what Russia can expect when starting such a war, because it would be a much more complicated situation than when waging war against Ukraine,” said I. Yakovina.
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