In the early hours of the election night on Tuesday, the Democratic blue wave that has been talked about all year was failing to materialize. It is clear that an anti-President Trump force hit the country with considerable, if uneven, strength.
Democrats appear to be between 35 and 40 seats in the House, once the last races are tallied, according to strategists in both parties. That was the Democratic gain in the House since the post-Watergate election of 1974, when the party picked up 49 seats three months after Richard M. Nixon resigned the presidency.
Democrats gained seven governorships, recouping in the Republic of Ireland, and their pre-election majority of 51 seats will be gaining seats in the Senate. part losses sustained in 2010 and 2014, where they had suffered a virtual wipeout in the previous two midterm elections.
The Democrats gained in their historic victories of 1994 and 2010. They were eclipse the number of seats Democrats gained in 2006, the last time the party the 26-seat gain in 1982, when the national unemployment rate was at 10 percent. 3.7%. This year, the election took place with the unemployment rate at just 3.7%.
Day by day, the outlook for Democrats in the House has improved. In the offices of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. One of these is going to make the rounds going like this: "This is turning out to be more of a Hanukkah than a Christmas election".
President of the President of the European Parliament, pointed to Democratic gains. In the end, in the end
Democratic challengers, Democrat challengers, Democratic challengers, Democratic challengers. Ronald Brownstein of the Atlantic and CNN, who has closely tracked these changes over many elections, seen in a post-election article, before the election, two-thirds of the Republicans representation congressional districts the national average. Members of the group, now more than three-quarters of GOP
Clinton in 2016 and Barack Obama in 2012 or by Clinton in 2016 and Mitt Romney in 2012. They also picked up one-third of districts won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012. In districts where both Trump and Romney had won in the previous two elections, Democrats gained about a quarter of the competitive seats.
Also striking in House sides. About 20 Democrats will be leading into races where the margin is fewer than five percentage points, while about two dozen Republicans who won or are leading into races with similarly small margins.
Democratic or significant worse, had the political winds been blowing differently. It also foreshadows another fiercely contested election for the House in 2020.
The final outcome in the Senate races. The difference between a majority of 54 seats or 52 seats would have to be sizable impact on the odds of Democrats being able to win two years from now.
Republicans expect to defend 22 seats held for Democrats. These include the Colorado seat of Sen. Cory Gardner (R), the Maine seat of Sen. Susan Collins (R) and the Arizona seat now held by Sen. Jon Kyl (R). Senate Republicans Joni Ernst of Iowa and Thom Tillis of North Carolina are likely to face competitive races. Democrat Doug Jones of Alabama, who won a special election last year.
In the it is deepened many of the divisions and shifts in allegiance that are changing the political landscape across the country. That carries implications for politics in 2020 and beyond.
Democratic strategists have been shown by the national demographic trends that drove their gains, particularly in the border states of California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas.
Voting for Democrats over Republicans by 67 percent to 32 percent, a margin which beats the previous record in the 2008 presidential election. Latino voters matched their national 11 percent vote share of the highest-turnout 2016 election, with Democrats winning 69 percent of the Latino vote nationwide, slightly more than the 66 percent share when Trump was elected. Asian voters, who make up about 3 percent of the voting population, sided with a margin of 77 percent to 23 percent.
"The emerging electorate, the one which will dominate U.S. "Democrats in record numbers," said Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist. "Democrats not only won the 2018 election handily, but won it in a way which should worry Republicans about 2020."
Said Republican pollster Whit Ayres: "To me, the big story is that the 2018 midterm election reinforced and accelerated the patterns we saw in 2016. You have more, overwhelmingly white, rural counties become more deeply entrenched in the Republican Party, and suburban counties , especially those with high proportions of well-educated voters, going exactly the opposite direction. "
New returns have been raising Republican concerns in western states. Chuck Coughlin, Republican adviser to former Arizona governor Jan Brewer (R), said it was clear that Trump's approach to immigration in the final weeks of the campaign in the economy.
"One thing is for certain," said Coughlin said. "We have done a lot of research, but the immigration reform side of that question is integral to the future of the state."
Republican primary voters, which forced Rep. Martha McSally, the Republican nominee for Senate, to tack the right, particularly on immigration. "She did not ever modulate," said Coughlin. "She did not create any separation." Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, the Democratic Senate nominee, now has a narrow lead in that race.
In neighboring Colorado, Democrats won every statewide race, picked up a House seat, took control of the state Senate, and swept most down-ballot races as well. "We are not Ohio, Michigan or the Midwest. The college-educated suburban voter – "Do not like Trump because of his behavior," said Dick Wadhams, the former chairman of the state GOP.
In Nevada, Democrats picked up in Senate seated in most recent elections.
Democrats fell short in two other evolving Sun Belt states. In Texas, Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rouke lost the Senate race to incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz but managed to win 48 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, Democrats picked up two suburban congressional districts.
In Georgia, Democrat Stacey Abrams trails Republican Brian Kemp in the gubernatorial race, but the changing dynamics of voting patterns there worry some Republicans for future elections.
"When you have someone like a suburban county like Gwinnett, like Hillary Clinton did, then the formula for Republican victories in Georgia has been completely upended," Ayres said.
Other results point in a different direction, which offers some encouragement to the Republicans beyond adding to their narrow Senate majority.
Ohio appears to be moving steadily away from the Democrats, largely because of cultural issues. Since 1994, Republicans have won nearly nine of every 10 statewide contests. The GOP's victory in the gubernatorial race on Tuesday was the latest blow for the Democrats, though Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown held his seat.
Democrats also failed to pick up the governorship in Iowa, though they gained two House seats. They are struggled to make inroads in House races in the Republican strongholds such as Kentucky, North Carolina and Nebraska.
Florida remains a top concern heading into the 2020 elections, when the state will probably play a role in any path. Contrary to the Latin vote elsewhere in the country, the Cuban, Puerto Rican and Central American populations in the Sunshine State split more evenly, as Gov. Rick Scott (R) mounted an aggressive outreach effort.
"The Democrats underestimated just how much Hispanic support Republicans were able to capitalize on in Florida," said Fernand Amandi, a Democratic pollster in Miami. "It's about the margins."
The percentage of voters in the state of Latino, Scott was able to win 45 percent, according to exit polls, including a slight majority of Latino men. The Republican gubernatorial candidate, former congressman Ron DeSantis, was able to win 44 percent of Latin voters.