The invasion of Ukraine left Germany feeling completely betrayed by Russia. That is what Germany expert René Cuperus of the Clingendael Institute says in BNR’s De Wereld. According to Cuperus, Germany is therefore a country in a state of geopolitical shock. “They actually had a Russian-German friendship pact.”
A year ago, German Chancellor Scholz called the war in Ukraine a Zeitenwende, or a turning point. A turning point not only in the German-Russian relationship and a break with Willy Brandt’s Ostpolitik, but also in the search for the new German role within Europe. And that is difficult for a country that struggles with the ghosts of the past and where many policymakers still act from a mindset of that past.
Germany feels betrayed by Russia
“The invasion of Ukraine has left Germany feeling completely betrayed by Russia. Germany is a country in geopolitical shock. They actually had a Russian-German friendship pact’, Cuperus succinctly summarizes Germany’s national mentality. Scholz even visited Putin a week before Russia invaded Ukraine. To actually prevent this.’
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Angst
‘Germany is afraid for itself’, says Cuperus. ‘Germany is of course an economic powerhouse, but Zeitenwende means that Germany must again become a military and geopolitical powerhouse in Europe. And with that, it should actually leave behind all the scars of the twentieth century – the First World War, the Second World War – and once again become a military superpower in Europe. That takes a generation, I think, at least.’
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Ereguilt
A direct result of the Second World War, and the guilt Germany took on itself, was that pacifism became part of the DNA of post-war Germany. ‘Germany is actually a pacifist country. There’s a huge hesitation on all these arms deliveries. (to Ukraine, ed.).’ That is why arms deliveries are coordinated or combined with Europe, the US or France. “And that’s behind this weird link between Leopold I, II and Abram tanks.”
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Another symptom of that post-war pacifism is the crumbling support among the Germans for aid to Ukraine. ‘After World War II, Germany sees itself as a ‘Friedensmacht’. Like a country that never goes to war again, which actually wants to have a weak army. And then you get that fiddling with those Leopard 2 tanks.”
‘Germany is afraid of itself’
Never again
According to Cuperus, Chancellor Olaf Scholz feels very well that there is a strong ‘no weed feeling’ among the German population, but he has given this a good twist in his speech. According to Cuperus, Scholz explained well that ‘nie wieder’ (no more war, ed.) also refers to armed resistance against an aggressive war of aggression, which also means: never again imperialism.
Not only does Scholz have to navigate the cliffs of public opinion with dexterity, he also finds himself in a political minefield. Both within Germany and abroad. For example, Scholz is under great pressure from Eastern European countries. ‘To do much more than he does. And he didn’t mention them in that speech today. I found that significant.’
deal with
And within his own party he has to deal with the SPD mastodons who are still mentally in the Ostpolitik, while the Green coalition partners beat the drum of war. It’s a balancing act. He seems to be more concerned with domestic politics than with international politics. This has to do with hesitations within his own SPD. These are people who were very close to Russia. So there is a lot of suffering and Russia pain in that SPD.’
‘The Zeitenwende will determine the future of Europe’
Whatever the course of Germany will be, it is of imminent importance for the future of Europe and the Franco-German axis. ‘The most important thing is actually how the conflict in Ukraine will end. That is actually even more important than what exactly Germany’s role is in this. The Zeitenwende is decisive for the future of Europe.’
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