Without yet knowing the agreement for the restructuring of the debt under foreign law, which was confirmed on August 4, analysts estimated that the government will try to keep changes in this very sensitive variable for Argentines limited.
Regarding the REM for June, analysts lowered their devaluation projections, mainly for the last quarter of the year. While in the previous survey a depreciation of 4.9% was estimated for October and another of 4.2% for November, in the REM for July the expected increase for October is 4.4% and that of November is 2, 8%.
Thus, the nominal interannual variation forecast for 2020 is 44.4%. In parallel, the projection for the end of 2021 showed a value of $ 123.2 per dollar, which would mean an annual increase of 42.6%.
It should be remembered that, currently, the BCRA is regulating in a quite predictable way the increases of the wholesale dollar, which on this day it closed at $ 72.77. In the accumulated of May it climbed 2.5%, in June 2.8% and in July 2.6%.
However, the fact that in the last month, and so far in August, does not stop alarming the monetary authority had to sell about $ 600 million to keep the exchange rate at the desired levels.
Analysts argue that the deal for the exchange of foreign debt that the government announced this week should mean a relief for the exchange gap and for the demand for dollars.
To reduce this pressure, the Central also again corrected the minimum interest rate for time deposits in pesos, which is now equivalent to 87% of the Leliqs rate. This measure seeks to give greater incentives to investments in local currency.