How Trump's approval rating has evolved, according to data scientist Donald Trump


Late Wednesday night, President Trump tweeted a celebratory image.

The Rasmussen Reports poll has Trump with a 50% approval, the tweet notes, something that Trump attributes to his hard work. "Promises made, promises kept," the banners behind him read.

This is not the first time Trump tweeted a number from an approval poll. In fact, he made about two dozen times, both his general approval and his approval among African Americans (generally the only demographic group he chooses to share). That frequency allows us to create a sort of chart Trump Approval Polling Trend, putting together the numbers that he shared.

So, let's go.

One thing you will notice is that the trend is … mostly flat. Trump's tweet on his 50 percent approval is at least the seventh time he has celebrated a 50 percent approval vote, which is a bit like Apple repeatedly sending press releases advertising its title by hitting $ 170 At some point, a smart observer will notice that either nothing is changing or that, among those releases, the stock is seeing some drops.

Before understanding Trump's case, we should note that at least three times he tweeted the poll numbers, those numbers were wrong, estimated or non-existent.

There was his tweet detecting that his approval was "approximately" equal to that of Barack Obama at the same point as his first term; The approval of Trump in the survey cited by Rasmussen was two points lower.

C & # 39 was the tweet declaring that his approval was "around 50 percent" in Rasmussen "and other" polls. Rasmussen had it at 47%.

And then there was the weather in August when he claimed have an approval score of 52 percent. It seems that he may have accidentally highlighted his disapproval from a Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll.

With these corrections, our table looks like this.

(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)

Let's go back to the other question then. Does Trump's approval remain flat or does Trump ignore the downward fluctuations?

You will have noticed that Trump often quotes Rasmussen's polls. In fact, almost all the polls that he highlighted on Twitter come from that pollster. It seems Trump often touches the cream from the top of Rasmussen's polls; those who choose to highlight usually come from new peaks in Rasmussen's surveys or when they exceed 50%.

When Rasmussen got his approval and lost 51% at the beginning of April, he pushed Trump's tweets. Shortly thereafter, we wrote an article in which it was observed that Rasmussen's results could be taken with a pinch of salt.

Why? Especially because Rasmussen sees results that are almost always much more friendly than Trump compared to other surveys. If we compare Rasmussen's results with the RealClearPolitics survey average – an average that includes Rasmussen's results! – you can see that Trump's favorite survey results are almost always higher or much higher than the average of all other surveys.

(Philip Bump / The Washington Post)

Since the inauguration of Trump, Rasmussen's results have been above the CPR average of 99.4 percent of the time.

Just because a pollster's figures do not agree with other surveys does not mean that the polls are wrong. They could follow a trend that others do not see. Fortunately, we can evaluate Rasmussen's accuracy against a recent and verifiable benchmark: mid-term elections.

The Democrats won 53.4% ​​of the vote of the National Chamber to write to 44.9% of the Republicans, with a gap of 8.5 points. We can compare it with the general poll vote, a poll question asking voters which party they prefer in a generic Home contest. The average RealClearPolitics final poll gave the Democrats an advantage of 7.3 points, which means that the average was 1.2 points.

The last Rasmussen poll had the Republicans with an advantage in one-point house competitions. Rasmussen missed the result by 9.5 points.

Minutes after the publication of this article, Trump had a new tweet.

On Thursday morning, Rasmussen updated his tracking numbers for daily approvals. According to the data "just reported", Trump is back to 49%.


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