IMF, global recovery accelerates. GDP revised upwards also for Italy (+ 4.2%) but unemployment will rise to 11.6%

The forecasts on the world economy made by the International Monetary Fund improve. In the new “World Economic Outlook” published today, the estimate on the growth of the world gross domestic product rises al 6% from 5.5% last January. In 2022, the increase should instead be 4.4%, 0.2% more than the previous forecast. The Fund itself warns, however, that “there is great uncertainty about the estimates” and even if growth accelerates “the future presents difficult challenges”. “The pandemic is not yet defeated and cases are accelerating in various countries. The recovery is at different speeds, ”the report reads. This year, the recovery will be mainly driven by United States thanks also to the maxi plan to support and relaunch the economy launched by the White House. In 2021 the US GDP it should rise by 6.4% and then slow down to + 3.5% in 2022. The China it will score + 8.6% this year and then drop to + 5.6% next year.

The estimate for the euro zone is that the economy is expanding at 4.4% this year and 3.8% next. Estimates were also slightly for the euro area adjusted upwards (+ 0.2%). More in detail, the German GDP should grow by 3,6% in 2021 and 3.4% in 2022, that French at 5.8% this year and 4.2% in 2022, the Spanish one by 6.4 and 4.7%. The Fund also improved the numbers onItaly. GDP is expected to grow by 4.2% this year, 1.2% more than estimated in January. For 2022, GDP is expected to increase by 3.6%. This year, the public deficit should settle at 8.8% of GDP and then drop to 5.5% next year. The debt will stand at 157.1% this year. Unemployment forecasts have also been revised for the better, but are still worrying. This year the rate of people looking for a job will stabilize al 10,3% (11.8% the previous estimate) but for 2022 a further increase is expected all’11,6%, more than three percentage points higher than the euro area average.

Presenting the data, the chief economist of the IMF Gita gopinath he explained that the recovery proceeds on divergent paths between countries and this risks creating ampi gap, with low-income countries paying the highest price for Covid. Gopinath warned that, with the pandemic crisis, it is possible that an additional 95 million people have slipped into extreme poverty as early as 2020. At the international level, countries must work together to ensure a universal vaccination“, Then said the chief economist, underlining that accelerating vaccinations requires an increase in production and distribution, avoid export controls, finance the Covax (the fund that deals with the vaccination program in the poorest countries, ed) and ensure a fair transfer of excess doses. As for the proposal of the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to introduce a global minimum tax rate on the profits of multinational corporations Gopinath said: “We have been for a long time favorable to a global minimum tax for multinationals ”.

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