Inflation is the highest in the United States in four decades, what about the Fed? / BIG EXPERT – foreign markets: week from 10. 1. 2022

The current topic of the second business week, statistics were exactly as expected consumer prices in the form of CPI indices. Year-on-year increase inflation is in United States the largest in almost four decades, which could be a very strong argument for the American central bankto speed up the process of tightening monetary policy and readjust the level interest rates already in March.


According to the ministry work index consumer prices in the US last month, after rising by 0.8% in November, it increased by another 0.5%. Year-on-year, the CPI reached 7% in December, the largest year-on-year increase since June 1982. Supply chain problems and reverberations coronavirus pandemic pushes up prices and high vital costs are starting to seep into the agenda Joe Bidena.

Inflation is well above the 2% target after many years FED. According to statistics from the American labor market published last week unemployment rate in December, it fell to a 22 – month low of 3.9%, suggesting that labor market is at its maximum employment or it is very close to him. Chairman FED Jerome Powell on Tuesday during his hearing before the Banking Committee Senate he said that US Federal Reserve It is ready to do everything necessary to prevent rooting high inflation. List of reasons why FED is starting to eliminate accommodative monetary policy, it is still growing. Analytical houses currently account for an 85% probability that increase in interest rates will take place during the month of March. By the end of the year, we could look forward to three rate increase.

Indications that FED is ready to start growth interest rates faster than originally expected, they stirred up overseas and last week European markets and volatility therefore appears to continue into the new week. It fell last week industrial index DJIA 0,3 %, S&P 500 lost 1.9% and technological Nasdaq fell by 4.5%. Because of the view rate increase US benchmark 10-year yield in Friday flew up to two-year highs of 1.80%.

The market is getting nervous and investors are taking turns technological growth shares for the values ​​they think would make them in a high environment interest rates could have done much better. Even a growing number of cases coronavirus varianty Omicron continues to contribute to growing risk aversion in global stock markets.

However, there are signs that supply chain problems are beginning to subside, which could indicate that we saw a possible peak in the annual CPI rate in December. Excluding volatile components food a energy the core CPI rose by 0.6% last month. In November, it was 0.5% growth. Year-on-year, core inflation accelerated by 5.5%. This is the largest year-on-year increase since February 1991. Core growth inflation is driven by rising prices services, especially growth rents, and the demand for scarce goods – such as motor vehicles.

However, it is estimated that in the first quarter it would be overseas inflation could reach its peak thanks to the lower ones energy prices and decline food prices a cars.

Libor Stockings, Imperial Finance


Opinions of experts on future developments in selected foreign markets monitored through indices and comparison with the Czech market capital market
(PX) within one and a half years, in the week from 10. 1. 2022.

Expert estimate for a period of 1 month

Pointer Hodn.

7. 1.
Diameter Median Change

v %
Interval Grow Decrease
PX 1 427,02 1 340 1 385 -6,10 1 100 – 1 420 0 6
Dow Jones (US) 36 231,66 34 975 35 950 -3,47 30 000 – 36 200 0 6
NASDAQ C.(US) 14 935,90 15 117 15 400 1,21 13 200 – 15 900 4 2
FTSE 100 (VB) 7 485,28 7 197 7 275 -3,86 6 800 – 7 480 0 6
DAX (German) 15 947,74 15 625 15 825 -2,02 14 200 – 16 200 1 5
Nikkei 225 (Jap.) 28 478,56 29 010 29 200 1,87 28 200 – 29 500 4 2


Expert estimate for a period of 6 months

Pointer Hodn.

7. 1.
Diameter Median Change

v %
Interval Grow Decrease
PX 1 427,02 1 290 1 285 -9,62 1 150 – 1 418 0 6
Dow Jones (US) 36 231,66 34 363 34 750 -5,16 31 000 – 36 180 0 6
NASDAQ C.(US) 14 935,90 14 675 14 650 -1,75 13 500 – 16 200 1 5
FTSE 100 (VB) 7 485,28 7 288 7 413 -2,64 6 700 – 7 600 2 4
DAX (German) 15 947,74 15 642 15 725 -1,92 14 500 – 16 500 2 4
Nikkei 225 (Jap.) 28 478,56 28 892 28 725 1,45 27 800 – 30 500 3 3

This week’s reviews were by:

  • Jan Nemecek – BH Securities
  • Petr Pelc – CYRRUS
  • Marco Marinucci – General Investments CEE, an investment company
  • Libor Stockings – Imperial Finance
  • Jiří Zendulka – Kurzy.cz
  • Aleš Charvát – UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia

The tables contain a summary of the experts’ estimates in the list. The “Current value” column shows the value of the monitored indices (Friday’s closing value), on which the experts based their estimates. Experts’ estimates will be compared with this value after a period of one or six months to evaluate success. “Median” is a number that lies in the middle of the size of the ordered set of estimates, and “Interval of Estimates” indicates the minimum and maximum estimate of the set. The “Growth / Decrease” columns indicate the number of experts predicting that the index will increase or decrease relative to the current value in the period under consideration.

Note: Estimates take the form of non-binding opinions with regard to the expected development in the next one and a half years. However, the reality may differ significantly from the experts’ estimate. Experts or Kurzy.cz they do not assume any responsibility for these differences.


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