September 06, 2020
The 2021 electoral scene changed suddenly with the suppression of the most visible political enemy of Lopez Obrador, his old rival Felipe Calderon, as when the opponent tests positive for anti-doping before jumping onto the court. About to start the process, the INE applied restrictive criteria to curb malpractices in the registration of new parties, given the erosion of public life due to the permissiveness of the use of illicit resources in the campaigns that account for the complaints of corruption against the former president and Peña grandson. Although for Lopez Obrador it was only the day of the revenge, which he celebrated like in a Tik Tok painting exhorting Calderon to take to the streets against failure.
However, it is a hard blow to representatives of that old political class in which the illegal financing of politics grew, as well as the incombustible corporatism that put parties in the hands of union leaders such as Elba The Pedro Haces to negotiate with the power with resources of its affiliates. Both defeated, close to Q4, were not even mentioned at the presidential feast.
The decision was surprising due to the last minute change regarding the opinion that endorsed Mexico Libre, of Calderon–Zavala, and Social Meeting, the only one that prospered in divided voting despite its evangelical affiliation. Some counselor who spoke out against it foresaw, just 24 hours before, that the opinion would hardly change in plenary session. What happened? The draconian requirements of the parties to preserve themselves from competition served this time to discard new cases of potential toxicity for the INE itself, which has had a very tough relationship with Lopez Obrador to the point of saying that, if he could, he would disappear them. But not even the decision tempered his mockery and disqualification against the INE.
Lopez Obrador he lost the opportunity to send a message against the illegal financing of all parties that so outrages the public because of the corruption scandals. The entrance door for new parties is small and, above all, very expensive. Successful cases are generally helped by a certain dissimulation in the control of their resources. An aspect that weakens, in this and other cases, the electoral authority due to ineffectiveness, when it does not suspect it of using different standards according to the political situation. The argument for slamming the door to México Libre was not to verify the origin of 8% (1 million pesos) of the money I use, while the complaints of Lozoya reveal millions of dollars diverted to the Peña grandchild or the recordings to Pío López Obrador on irregular financing of Morena in 2015. No one has left the political scene for it, although now its political cost due to the scandals is greater.
But the ruling has profound repercussions on the electoral game and hopefully also on normalized toxic practices in the world of politics. It is true that the referee never looks good and, this time, it will be thought that he served the thirst for revenge of Lopez Obrador against his old rival in the 2006 elections, despite the fact that he himself said that “I already forgave him for stealing the election.” In circles of government power, the implications of leaving out of the electoral track leaders who channel the rejection against the 4T in a context of weakened opposition have been debated. Some celebrate, others worry, as a carbon copy of their polarization in the networks.
For now, the cancellation benefits the current parties because it strengthens their political weight to agree coalitions, although the government has an advantage due to the greater amount of resources and satellite parties to join forces. Even the only one approved, Encuentro Social, is a resurrected ally that brought him to power in 2018, although he lost registration.
The other big losers, without a doubt, are the corporations linked to the teachers’ union and its old leader, Elba Ester Gordillo, and that of Pedro Haces, to whom for the first time a brake is put on handouts and the diversion of union resources to politics. I hope that his cut is not a compensation for the strict law against the unborn Free Mexico.
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