The Covid forecast consortium regularly publishes short-term forecasts for the development of the pandemic. Last week there were two publications because the first one was too optimistic, according to complexity researcher Peter Klimek from the Complexity Science Hub im Ö1 morning journal. According to Klimek, the number of cases is developing “very quickly.”
Three factors are responsible for the increase, which in detail is decisive for the increase, but is still unclear. The three factors: relaxation, high number of tests and new virus variants – here in particular the British variant: “We have seen in recent weeks that the pandemic is not under control with this variant. This means that these cases double every two to four weeks right now, “says Klimek in the Ö1 morning journal.
In Burgenland, the share of the British variant in new infections in the past 7 days was 75 percent, in Vienna and Lower Austria it was over 50 percent. However, further growth cannot yet be specifically assessed. In the worst case, tough measures must be taken before Easter, according to the complexity researcher.
It is very likely that the number of infections will rise rapidly. By the beginning of March one will be able to better assess which factors influence the infection process and how. Klimek does not currently consider it expedient to think about further openings.