Last week, it was recommended to buy goods below 20,000 points and speculate on the rebound. The session of the cargo machine appeared so quickly. The Hang Seng Index broke the 20,000-point mark again last week, but the threshold was quite resilient. The 20,000 mark was not lost, and it fell slightly by 26 points for the whole week to close at 20175 points, with a high and low fluctuation of only 781 points. For the whole week, the Hang Seng Index fell slightly by 26 points; the HSCEI fell by 44 points; the KSE Index fell by 65 points.
Among blue-chip stocks, Li Ning (2331) rose 7%, China Hongqiao (1378) rose 6%, and CNOOC (883) rose 5%. The worst performers were Longfor Group (960), which fell by 13.5%, Country Garden (2007), which fell by 10%, and JD.com (9618), which fell by 9%.
U.S. stocks speculate on inflation, rising for 3 consecutive days
Hong Kong stocks held the 20,000 mark, partly helping US stocks to do well. Inflation peaked in US stocks last week, and the three major indexes continued to do well on the last trading day of last Friday. After opening 94 points higher, the increase gradually expanded. In the last segment, it rose 430 points and closed at 33761 points, up 424 points, an increase of 1.3%, close to the all-day high and closed for the third day in a row. The Nasdaq was at 13,047, up 267 points, and the S&P 500 was at 4,280, up 72 points, the highest since May 4.
The U.S. stock market saw the light at the end of the rate hike tunnel. In total, the three major indexes rose nearly 3% throughout Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite and the SSI rose 3.1% and 3.3% respectively. The Nasdaq and S&P rose for four consecutive weeks, their best performance in nine months.
Wall Street speculates on speculation, on the contrary, Hong Kong government officials wear steel helmets. After the market closed last week, they announced the revised value of the second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), and revised the second-quarter economic growth rate of contraction to 1.3% year-on-year, seasonally adjusted. 1% quarter-on-quarter. At the same time, due to the weaker-than-expected economic performance in the first half of the year and the sharp deterioration of the global economic outlook, it is estimated that Hong Kong’s GDP growth forecast for this year will be revised down to -0.5% to 0.5% from the 1% to 2% that was reviewed in May.
China and Hong Kong respond to economic adjustment and epidemic prevention measures
Although the data is messy, the SAR announced to change the quarantine time for immigrants to “3+4”, and approved a number of international events, so that the business community believes that external contacts will be gradually connected. Another noteworthy news is the Wall Street Journal report that Chinese officials are planning President Xi Jinping’s trip to Southeast Asia in November, during which he will meet with US President Joe Biden. If successful, it will be Xi Jinping’s first trip abroad since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic three years ago, and it will also be the first face-to-face meeting between the two since Biden took office.
The immediate response to this news was that the “Xi visit” should help ease the relationship between the two countries. However, before the US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, the two heads of state also had a phone call. As a result, Pelosi continued to make the trip. When leaders meet face-to-face, they cannot have excessive illusions about the results. On the contrary, this is Xi Jinping’s first foreign visit since the outbreak of the epidemic, which means that after the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held at the end of October, China has gradually begun to normalize and operations have returned to normal. The mainland has been plagued by the epidemic this year, and its growth has fallen to a trough. It is generally estimated that the mainland will gradually relax its epidemic control after making adequate preparations for injections and oral medicines. The outside world naturally expects leaders to visit abroad.
Swire Plus Pays Dividend and Announces Buyback
There is a trend of gradually relaxing epidemic control in China and Hong Kong, which is inseparable from the economic pressure. This can be seen from the daily decrease in stock market trading. Last week, the daily trading of the local stock market was basically less than 100 billion yuan, and the turnover on the last trading day was only 749 yuan. 100 million yuan, and the funds mainly flow to traditional value stocks. The old-fashioned firm Swire Pacific increased its dividend and announced a 4 billion yuan repurchase plan in the mid-term. The stock price soared in two days. Taikoo A (019) surged 5.5% last Friday to close at 52.65 yuan. The Citigroup report said that Swire’s buyback plan has a surprise, which is expected to renew investors’ interest in its investment, thereby narrowing the discount of the share price to the net asset value. Goldman Sachs upgraded Swire’s rating from “neutral” to “buy”, saying that due to the impact of the epidemic and inflation, the short-term prospects of many businesses may continue to be uncertain, but it believes that the worst period is over and will usher in recovery.
Traditional value stocks reflected their asset and cash flow advantages during the economic downturn, and individual performances were even more surprising. China Mobile (941) announced its results last week. The net profit for the half year ended June was 70.3 billion yuan, an increase of 18.9% year-on-year. It earned 3.29 yuan per share, and the interim dividend payout ratio was about 58%. The management’s full-year dividend payout ratio in 2021 is around 60%, the full-year dividend payout level in 2022 may be higher than last year, and the target for 2023 is to reach 70%.
Lu Yuren just had the opportunity to drink tea with people close to China Mobile in the past two days. When asked about the better-than-expected mid-term performance, he said that the company has plenty of cash and has invested in many new projects in the past two years, including its cloud business. According to the performance disclosure, the mobile cloud business has doubled, and the revenue growth of the government and enterprise market has continued to be strong. In the first half of the year, the company’s government and enterprise market revenue increased by 24.6% year-on-year to 91.1 billion yuan, of which mobile cloud business revenue reached 23.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 104%. After the announcement, some major banks are optimistic about the company’s resource endowment with the help of its user base and cloud network capabilities, and it is expected that mobile cloud revenue will double in 2022.
China Mobile’s performance handsome boy dividend increase
People close to China Mobile said that many people think that China Mobile is a traditional stock, but the company wins because of its strong cash flow and the support of a large pond. The company has established an investment company and has made a lot of investments in related upstream and downstream projects. Cloud is one of them A related project, or even chip research and development, has the opportunity to drive growth in the future. In addition, if the Metaverse has become a new field of network applications, China Mobile has the capital to participate in the game.
In the past, local investors liked to buy local utility stocks when the economy was unstable. However, as Hong Kong’s economy entered a plateau period, the growth of electricity, electricity and coal has slowed down. Although the local business of utility stocks is guaranteed to be profitable, it will reduce the rate of return in the long run. possible. Some utility companies such as CLP (002) have entered overseas, but their experience has been unpleasant for years. The Hong Kong public utility company has done a good job in Hong Kong, all because of its political advantages, it can make a profit without losing money. CLP has just announced its results that its overseas business has lost hands, which has had an impact on its valuation. Another utility stock, Gas (003), also tumbled due to the decline in profit and the cessation of bonus shares, which made the good days of this sector come to an end.
Compared with Hong Kong utility stocks, the mainland telecommunications stock market is larger, and the management is no less than Hong Kong companies in developing new businesses. Last year, the U.S. Ministry of Finance suppressed several state-owned enterprises, and China Mobile, etc. faded out of the U.S. capital market. After returning to A-shares this year, it handed over a splendid business. The current price dynamic price-earnings ratio is 7.2 times, and the interest rate is 8.8%. When the economy is bottoming out, it is just right to play its traditional value. The charm of shares.