Model calculation: London could already be corona-free in June

panorama Less than 24 cases a day

Why London could be corona-free in June

As of: 7.49 p.m. | Reading time: 3 minutes

According to the model calculation, London has a reproduction number of 0.4

According to the model calculation, London has a reproduction number of 0.4 – the lowest in the country

Credit: dpa / Victoria Jones

According to a model calculation, London only counts fewer than 24 new infections per day. As a result, the virus could soon disappear from the metropolis. Experts have doubts.

NAs of March 23, London was the epicenter of the UK Corona crisis. Since May 10, less than 24 people have contracted the coronavirus daily in London, according to a model of Public Health England and Cambridge University. Using these numbers, the research team calculated a reproduction number R of just 0.4. The model predicts that the number of new infections in London could be zero in two weeks.

At 0.4, the number of reproductions indicating how many people are infected with the virus would be the lowest in the country – according to the report it is 0.8 in North East England and Yorkshire and 0.75 in the whole of England .

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There are several reasons why it fell so much in London. The social distancing measures were carried out particularly strictly there, for example parts of public transport were blocked even before the lockdown.

20 percent of people in London could be infected

Keith Neal, professor of epidemiology at the University of Nottingham, told the Daily Telegraph that areas with low R-rates may have better access to the NHS app to track down contacts. “It is very likely that some parts of the country have lower Rs and fewer cases because these sites tested earlier and adjusted restrictions.”

With the downward trend in infection rates, another number has to be considered: the researchers assume that 20 percent of people in London are already infected with the virus. Across England, the estimate is twelve percent. The higher level of temporary immunity could slow the spread of the virus.

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However, experts also have doubts about the model calculation: The number of new cases of Covid-19 in London is likely to be “slightly higher” than 24, Sebastian Funk told BBC Radio 4’s “Today” program. He is a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. There are some uncertainties. “However, what we have seen in London is that the number of deaths and deaths has dropped faster than in other parts of the country, albeit from a significantly higher level,” he said.

Robert Dingwall, professor of sociology at Nottingham Trent University, doubts to Telegraph that the corona virus, as the model calculation assumes, actually disappears from London: “It is unlikely that Sars-CoV-2 will soon, if at all, stop working the human population is being wiped out. We have to live with this infection the way we live with seasonal influenza. “

In addition, buses and subways in London have been replenished since the government first eased the situation. It remains to be seen whether the low infection rate will persist.


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