Tensions in the Middle East continue to hit the price of oil, taking into account that the largest crude oil producers in the world reside there. The oil Brenta reference in Europe, has shot up nearly 3% at the start of the session to reach $93 per barrel after Iran has proposed a boycott by Arab allies of imports from Israel. Among these countries are Saudi Arabia, the second largest producer of crude oil in the world, with about 13% of the world quota, surpassed only by the United States. Iraq is the fifth most relevant country in the generation of black goldUnited Arab Emirates, seventh, Iran appears in eighth position and Kuwait in tenth. Together they produce almost a third of the daily barrels of oil globally.
The truth, in any case, is that The contagion to raw material prices is being felt very modestly in the markets. It is true that since Hamas launched its attack against Israel on Sunday, October 8, the Brent It has increased its price per barrel by 8% and reached $93 this morning. His American counterpart, West Texas, adds another 7% increase since then, and stands at the barrier of 87 dollars per barrel. According to the news agency Reutersthe OPEC+ countries “are not at the moment taking any immediate action in response to the request made by Iran.”
According to data distributed by OEC (the Observatory of Economic Complexity, according to its acronym in English) at the end of 2021, imports of refined oil reached 1.88 trillion dollars, compared to exports that were higher, valued at 2 .73 billion. Among the countries from which Israel buys crude oil are India, Greece, the United States, Russia and Singapore, but none of the Arab countries that could become involved in the conflict are present.
In the focus of the experts, Saudi Arabia stands out, which was in full diplomatic rapprochement with Israel before the war broke out, with the United States as a mediator. But the escalation of war has ruined this option. Goldman Sachs, in the least bad scenario, considering that Saudi Arabia “maintains its production stable at 9 million barrels per day in 2024, would cause an increase in the price of Brent to 104 dollars” within twelve months. Different analysis firms go one step further and do not rule out that if different Arab countries finally take part in the conflict, the price of crude oil could exceed the highs of the Lehman Brothers financial crisis, and it will reach $ 150. It is a hypothesis that, in any case, seems extreme at the moment.
Where the humanitarian crisis between Gaza and Israel is being felt is in he gas natural. The one listed in Europe shoots up nearly 31% and it already exceeds levels of 50 euros/MWh. The rise is spectacular, but it is still very far from touching the highs of August last year, when it reached 260 euros after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.