While the epidemiological situation is fragile, with a high number of deaths and hospitalizations, Montreal may have reached the peak of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, according to new simulations from the National Institute of Public Health of Quebec ( INSPQ) and Laval University.
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According to the models, which are based on current health measures – including school closures – the peaks in cases and new hospitalizations would have been reached or would be reached by January 17.
“The peaks of ongoing hospitalization and deaths would occur later, depending on the length of hospitalization and the time between infection and death. In the absence of case data, incident hospitalization data for the next few days will provide a better understanding of the trajectory of the epidemic,” the INSPQ said in a statement.
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Simulations show in a pessimistic scenario that the return to school in January could delay the peak of cases.
“In this sense, monitoring transmission among young people when they return to school is essential to better anticipate the evolution of the epidemic in the coming weeks and the risk of percolation towards more vulnerable groups”, added indicated Éric Litvak, vice-president of scientific affairs at the INSPQ.
“In the coming days, new and ongoing hospitalization data will allow us to better understand the trajectory of the epidemic. Given the very high community transmission, the situation remains fragile even if a slowdown in the growth of cases and hospitalizations could occur soon, ”said Marc Brisson, researcher at the Mathematical Modeling and Economics Research Group. Health Related to Infectious Diseases from Université Laval.