World – relationships
The discussions will continue on Friday with independent producers, according to a delegate from OPEC.
Riyadh and Tehran agree on the US president of OPEC, where Trump's request for OPEC not to cut production, the rejection of Saudi and Iranian cynicism.
In an emphatic affirmation of the rejection of Trump's dictates to OPEC, Saudite energy minister Khalid al-Falih said that Washington "is not in a position to dictate its desires to OPEC". He said in an impressive statement before an OPEC meeting in Vienna on Thursday: "I do not need Permit One to cut production."
Al-Falih believes that the reduction of one million barrels per day is desirable, without specifying whether this reduction will deviate from the targets set at the end of 2016 or from the group's production volume in October and November.
He stressed that this reduction, which can be decided at the meeting, "must be shared equally between the Member States" according to the percentage of production.
After Iranian oil minister Bijen Zankaneh said he was against reducing his country's production because of the US embargo, he also ridiculed Trump's appeal on Thursday. "This is the first time that an American president has told OPEC what to do,"He said.
"They must know that OPEC is an" independent organization, "he said, adding that it was not a branch of the US Department of Energy receiving orders from Washington..
He revealed the existence of many proposals to reduce oil production, and that "OPEC members who want to reduce production should decide this, indicating that the appropriate price for a barrel of oil ranges from 60 to 70 dollars"He said.
On Wednesday, Trump invited OPEC members not to cut production, saying oil prices should remain low..
Trump has often complained of OPEC this year because the rise in crude oil prices is driving up fuel prices in America.
The US State Department confirmed that news was circulating about the meeting between the Saudis energy minister and the United States special envoy for Iran Brian Hawk in Vienna on Wednesday, despite the denial of the Saudi Ministry of Energy. The meeting raised concerns about the extent of US pressure exerted on Riyadh to halt production cuts in order to avoid high oil prices.
Reuters sources stressed that the OPEC ministerial control committee and its allies, including Russia, agreed on the need to reduce oil production next year, adding that discussions are underway. # 39; entity of the reductions and based on them, despite the pressures of Trump, which aims to reduce oil prices.
Trump's pressure comes at a time when the oil minister of Oman said that everyone agreed on the need for production cuts and that the size of these cuts was discussed.
He added that OPEC and independent producers could agree to cut production of around one million barrels per day at the planned meeting, indicating that this figure is little more than 1% of global production, according to Bloomberg agency.
The Kuwait oil ministry has predicted in its Twitter account that a long-term cooperation agreement would be signed between OPEC and external oil producers.
OPEC and its partners could return to production quotas in 2016 by reducing oil production by over 1 million barrels per day, the TAS news agency said.
The former minister of Algerian oil predicted the stability of the price of Brent crude near $ 70 a barrel after the Vienna meeting planned, according to an interview with Anatolia.
Iraq's oil minister Thamir al-Ghadhban confirmed on Thursday that he was optimistic about a reduction of production agreement, pointing out that there was no specific figure to cut production.
"I am optimistic that the agreement will be reached and that it will ensure market stability," the minister said in a statement ahead of the OPEC summit. He stressed that "there is no specific figure to reduce production and that we are talking about a reduction of 1.3 million barrels".
Michael Cohen, an energy analyst, said in an analytical report on the channel's website CNBC That Iraq may be the next country to withdraw from OPEC after Qatar, adding that "Iraq has not been successful in reaching the desired rate of oil export repeatedly, so if the restrictions on production cuts are very severe, Iraq may feel that it is in its interest not to remain a member of the organization, "he said.
Most analysts expect an announcement of a production cut that remains unknown, with the goal of improving the price of oil, which is about $ 60 per barrel of Brent European.
Oil prices lost $ 26 between early October and the beginning of December, rising from $ 86 a barrel, the highest level since the fall of 2014, to $ 60 this month..
"Russia plays a key role in this (production reduction)," the Komertsbank group analysts said.
Russian oil minister Alexander Novak, who will attend a meeting in Vienna on Thursday in St Petersburg, said that "time" during the Russian winter "makes it harder for Russia to cut more than other countries, suggesting that Russian effort in this direction may not come Only later.
The analyst Stephen Brinock of the London brokerage group BVM stated that the agreement on a new denomination was almost "predetermined". He added that the opposite scenario will lead to "a wave of sales in large quantities and will ensure a return to global oil surplus." The only point unknown at this stage is the size of the reduction in production ".
Obstacles and potential exits
The crux of the matter is how to reduce production, create the mechanism for this cut and formulate a final declaration for OPEC that does not appeal to the president of the United States.
How will the quota for each country be determined and at what level will the reduction be carried out? Will Venezuela and Iran be included in the commitment reports or will they be excluded? Because if excluded from the commitment relationships, it facilitates the process of reducing production for the rest of the members, in particular Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have increased production in recent months.
Trump is trying to cut gasoline prices in America, but on the other hand, the continued decline in oil prices is hurting the US oil industry, the net effect of falling oil prices on the # 39; US economy will be positive or negative..
US oil prices will also affect $ 50 and less on some aspects of the US oil industry. The complexity is that a final statement that should try to stop price falls from the other side does not offend the United States.
All these aspects, in addition to the mechanism of production reduction, are foreseen by everyone in the formulation that will be issued by the final declaration of the OPEC.
Analysts are likely to cut production significantly, despite pressure from the president of the United States. In a report released last week, the Eurasia group said it expects an agreement between OPEC and Russia to cut production of 1.5 million barrels a day.
Last month, Saudi Arabia cut its daily production by 500,000 barrels in December and pumped 10.6 million barrels a day in October, before Saudi Arabia announced it would cut production in December of 500,000 barrels. Production will increase from this level in November.
On the other hand, analysts believe that Saudi Arabia can look for a modest reduction, in an attempt to balance the interest of OPEC members and what Trump wants, who thanked 39, Saudi Arabia last November, to keep oil prices low, just one day to indicate that it will not do It takes a strong action against the kingdom for the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
"The OPEC ministers' meeting, which began in Vienna on Thursday, is perhaps the biggest challenge for Saudi Arabia and Prince Mohammed bin Salman, his real ruler, because he will have to choose," said Abdel Bari Atwan, director and journalist of the Rai newspaper. Among the old allies is President Donald Trump, who opposes any cut of production and low prices, or a new friend, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was the only one to welcome him warmly during the G20 summit, demanding a production cut of over one million barrels to bring prices back to the high level reached in October, a Per (last October), or $ 86 a barrel. Placing Putin could mean Trump's indignation, and vice-versa. "
International pressure on Saudi Arabia remains strong. US Senator Bob Korker said today that he believed that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was involved in the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
However, it may not be enough to cut one million barrels a day or less to stabilize the market, which is overcrowded, said Warren Patterson, a commodity strategist B ING: "This is frustrating, I think it is not enough to balance the market during the first half of 2019"He said.
While analysts believe the least likely outcome is OPEC's inability to cut production, FAO Secretary-General Mohamed Barkindo saidCNN Last November, members were speaking to ensure consent before the Vienna meeting.