PPKM Level 4 will end, this is the expert’s explanation of the latest Covid-19 data

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Enforcement of Restrictions on Community Activities or PPKM Level 4 will end today or Monday, August 2, 2021. Until now the government has not decided whether the PPKM policy will continue or not.

Ahli Pulmonologi dan Ilmu Kedokteran Respirasi Fakultas Kedokteran Universitas Indonesia, Tjandra Yoga Aditama, mengatakan data epidemiologi pada 3 Juli 2021 menjadi patokan dalam menilai kasus Covid-19 sudah membaik atau belum.

Tjandra menjelaskan sedikitnya ada empat data epidemiologi yang dilaporkan setiap hari, yaitu jumlah kasus baru, jumlah tes yang dilakukan, angka kepositifan, dan jumlah yang meninggal.

"Untuk menilai apakah memang angka-angka itu sudah membaik atau belum maka kita dapat menganalisanya dengan membandingkannya dengan data tanggal 3 Juli 2021 ketika PPKM darurat dimulai," kata Tjandra dalam keterangannya, Senin, 2 Agustus 2021.

Tjandra stressed that the figure for July 3 was not a figure that would be achieved after the PPKM was carried out until now. The figure for July 3 was actually a high number, so at that time it was decided that the PPKM was an emergency. “So if today’s figures are still the same as July 3 figures (especially if they are higher) then it means that the situation has not been resolved properly,” he said.

Based on the analysis of epidemiological data or community transmission, on July 3, 2021, there were 27,913 new cases. While on August 1, the figure rose to 30,738. This FKUI professor reminded again that the government is targeting the number of new cases to fall below 10 thousand per day after PPKM.

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On July 3, 2021, the total positivity rate was 25.2 percent, and based on PCR/TCM it was 36.7 percent. Meanwhile, on August 1, the positivity rate rose and the total was 27.3 percent, and based on PCR/TCM it was 52.8 percent. WHO took the positivity rate below 5 percent to state the situation was under control, while Indonesia’s figure was still 5 times higher than the 5 percent safe benchmark.

As an illustration, Tjandra explained that India’s positivity rate at the end of July was only 2.4 percent, down 10 times from the figure of around 22 percent in May 2021 where cases in India were very high, and made world headlines. “Hopefully, with a good program, our positivity rate can also decrease 10 times so that cases in the community will also decrease significantly,” he said.

As of July 3, 2021, the number of tests was 110,983 people and 157,227 specimens. Meanwhile, as of August 1, the figure had indeed risen to 112,700 people. However, the government once targeted 400,000 inspections a day, which is clearly still far from being achieved.

On July 3, 2021, there were 491 deaths due to Covid-19. Meanwhile, as of August 1, the number rose to 1,604 who died. So it’s more than tripled. according to Tjandra Yoga Aditama, the number of deaths must be reduced, and this must be a top priority.

According to the plan, the government will announce the fate of PPKM Level 4 today, Monday, August 2, 2021. The regulation to control the Covid-19 pandemic has indeed expired on August 2, since it was extended to July 26, 2021.

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“That’s the plan. This morning there will still be discussions at the cabinet meeting,” said Spokesperson for the Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Investment, Jodi Mahardi, when confirmed about the incident. PPKM Level 4.

Also read: PPKM Level 4 ends today, what are the considerations to continue or stop?



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