Record winter in 2022/2023: new weather forecast surprises experts

The European weather model ECMWF has published a new forecast for the winter of 2022/2023 in Europe and it is quite shocking. Experts speak of a record winter for 2022/2023 and not in a positive sense. It looks like next winter will be very warm and dry.

Record winter in 2022/2023: particularly warm and dry

Although snow has fallen regularly in recent weeks and the ski resorts are starting to look whiter, this doesn’t seem to be the standard this coming winter. For months, weather experts have been talking about the winter of 2022/2023 being a record winter, but not one with a lot of snow. Looking at the figures of recent winters, according to the ECMWF forecast, February 2023 will be especially warm. The temperature deviations amount to as much as 2 degrees above the climate average. But not only that, according to the forecast it will also remain above average dry.

Several predictions combined in one model

In order to make the best possible forecast for the winter of 2022/2023, the ECMWF has combined different weather models in one graph (which you can view here). This looks at the months of December, January and February 2023. The map uses colors to indicate where areas are located in climatology (based on the past period from 1993-2016). A rather complicated story that simply shows global warming.

Orange and red indicate that the temperature is in the upper part of the climatology, a relatively large warming. White areas are in the lower part of the climatology and do not indicate a clear difference. Similar temperatures are expected here in December, January and February 2023 compared to previous years. The predominantly red and orange colors represent global warming. In general, the world is getting warmer. In Europe, a (fairly weak) signal of warmer temperatures (yellow and orange) can be seen compared to 1993-2016.

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Similarities in the different weather models

Not only the European weather model shows a record winter in 2022/2023, also in the American model NOAA agrees with this prediction. This model also predicts a mild winter. In December, an increase of 1 to 2 degrees compared to the temperature average from 1881 to 2022 is expected. In January this drops to an increase of between 0.5 and 1 degrees. From February the rise is even more extreme, NOAA predicts a 2 to 3 degree rise. A rise of 3 degrees will mainly occur in eastern Europe.

Can still go either way

December, January and February 2023 will be above average warm and dry according to the weather models. All this does not sound very positive for winter sports, but fortunately this forecast does not have to dampen the hope of snow. It’s a prediction and it doesn’t necessarily have to come true. Even in mild winters there is enough snow to ski on. We hope that the weather experts are wrong and that we can enjoy a nice, cold and snowy winter.

Bron: European weather model ECMWF

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