The war in Ukraine will have serious demographic consequences for Russia, but the data published by the Kremlin will not show this, because they are distorted, Russian demographer Alexei Raksha assesses in an interview with Radio Svaboda. In his opinion, the more serious effect of the war will not be mortality, but a reduction in the “migration attractiveness” of Russia, from which hundreds of thousands of people have already left for fear of being called up. We don’t have and never will have any data on this. We can only estimate, he says.
A Russian demographer warns of an increase in the death rate in Russia /Sefa Karacan/Anadolu Agency/Radio Swoboda /Getty Images
Alexey Raksha is a long-time employee of Rossatat (equivalent to the Central Statistical Office – ed.), who was the first to notice serious mortality in Russian society due to the coronavirus pandemic. As a result, he was expelled from the state institute and since then has been working with independent media as an expert.
Russian demographer: Rosstat publishes falsified data on society
In an interview with Radio Svaboda, Alexey Raksha states that Russian military losses in the war in Ukraine are not included in the official ones, state death statistics. – Since more and more Russians are dying at the front, theoretically this should affect the mortality rates, but we don’t see that. These statistics cannot be trusted – assessed the Russian demographer.
His words are confirmed by a graph that does not include the number of deaths at the front and states that the death rate among Russians in February 2023 is the lowest in several years. Referring to the data prepared by him, Raksza also adds that 5 to 10 percent will be born in Russia this year. fewer children than last yearalthough in his opinion it has nothing to do with the war or the exodus of men from the country.
According to the scientist, the official data published by Rosstat are “useless” and distorted. As he emphasized, he relies on unpublished research results sent to him by his colleagues from the state institute.
Alexei Raksha: This is the most tragic war in Russian history since 1945
According to Raksha the war had yet to have any effect on Russia’s demographics. – For now, it’s more economic damage. (…) So far, war has had almost no effect on the birth rate, and as far as mortality is concerned, it must be studied according to multiplied twice reports from “Mediazona” (independent Russian portal – ed.). That’s all, he said.
The scientist noted that in recent weeks the losses of the Russians at the front rose sharply. If it had stayed that way, 100,000 people would have died in a year. people, but it won’t, because war doesn’t progress linearly or exponentially. It’s an unpredictable process – he said and pointed out that it was Russia’s worst war since 1945.
– Since the end of World War II, the world has been held only two wars with a similar number of casualties – he said.
“The death rate of Russians will start to increase”
Alexei Raksha recognized that the basic problem is that how many people left Russia as a result of the war, and how many came to it. We don’t have and never will have that information. We can only try to estimate the scale, but currently these flows are probably more or less equal, he commented.
– War can affect reducing Russia’s migration attractiveness. More people will leave the country and fewer will come to it. The birth rate will decrease, the mortality rate will increase, and it is also affected by alcohol, cigarettes and drugs. The coronavirus is almost over, it no longer affects the number of deaths. The situation will be bad from all points of view – he assessed.
The demographer emphasizes that, in his opinion, migration problems however, it mainly affected the economy. Answering the question about the consequences of the announcement of the mobilization and the abandonment of hundreds of thousands of young men, Raksza said: – They left as a rule young, active, ambitious, well-educated and quite wealthy people, who could bring huge contribution to the Russian economy. However, they would contribute to demographic growth to a much lesser extent.
“Propaganda is on both sides. War spoils everything”
The scientist also criticized the article of the British weekly “The Economist”, which stated that over the past three years Russia lost at least two million more citizens than expected. – This publication sucked these numbers out of its finger. (…) This text is biased, and journalists could not and did not want to understand the situation – he said and emphasized that it’s the result of the war.
– Propaganda is on both sidesand war has a generally bad effect on everything – on democracy all over the world, on the press, on human rights, on mortality and on the birth rate. War ruins everything he said.
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