SCENARIOS / Crac Evergrande and invasion of Taiwan, the new ’29 is approaching

Perhaps somewhat distracted readers will have to cross these axes: Evergrande, Taiwan, 2027. The former is a Chinese real estate giant with over 250 billion euros in debt. The second is the island of Taiwan: 60% of semiconductors are produced locally, modern society without this production stops. In addition, the island is a transit hub for oil to Japan. 2027, on the other hand, is an important year: after that date, the US will no longer have the military strength to contain China, which would have no problem invading Taiwan.

The military axis runs parallel to the economic one: the West with NATO carries out a containment operation by equipping Australia with nuclear submarines (Macron was offended because it lost 50 billion, but that’s good, since French submarines are obsolete).

The US strategy is clear and will be carried out by Kamala Harris: to break the economic column within the US (that is, those who do business with the Chinese such as the Corporation, Apple above all), relocating production to American soil.

The Chinese boom of the last 35 years has been “doped” by speculation and debt overdose, as well as a continuous pumping of liquidity by the Bank of China, which has also turned to virtual currencies for a while, focusing on blockchain technology.

The crash of Chinese real estate giant Evergrande has already infected the Asian markets (first of all, the ASEAN countries, which now depend on Beijing, yet another missed opportunity for the West) and risks strongly destabilizing the world economy, given that investments in the land of the Dragon are huge .

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In addition to the giants of multinationals, there are financial investments by European funds. China, however, is reacting without farsightedness, half of Europe (Balkans in the lead) is now in the orbit of Beijing and risks an almost immediate crisis rebound. Chinese penetration is deep and the freezing of state liquidity could stall a myriad of Chinese activities in the Old Continent.

As long as the US economy is ahead, the “economic rebound” will be limited, but this may not be enough to stop the Chinese black swan, which seems to have spread its wings by now. A new 1929 is not to be excluded and the thud could be even worse, bringing the Dragon to bring back capital even through military conquests such as the island of Taiwan.

It is no longer a question, therefore, only of computer economics, but of geopolitics combined with military affairs, a double crisis that sees the West not reactive as before 2010 and a NATO not up to the task, especially after the Afghan route. .

Kamala Harris, in fact, has already prepared a plan of rearmament and containment, discussed with the historical ally: London. Meanwhile, with Australia, in fact, we are moving to a new phase, of absolute military containment.

Germany and France will have to decide who to do business with, being today still very much aligned with Beijing.

Italy, on the other hand, by embracing the Tempest project (sixth generation fighter) with London, has made it clear that it remains a pivot of NATO, effectively excluding any bridge with the Silk Road.

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The black swan has taken flight.

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