Woo Sang-ho and Ahn Cheol-soo are inferior in bilateral confrontation… 3rd party matchdown
On the 10th, a poll came out on the 10th that if the Democratic Party candidate Park Young-sun and the Nationalist Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo fight bilaterally in the 4·7 Seoul Mayor’s by-election, an ultra-thin game will unfold within 1%.
This result was found in a public opinion survey conducted by Korea Research on 804 Seoul citizens over the age of 18 on the 8th and 9th at the request of MBC.
As a result of asking who to vote for, assuming the situation in which candidates Park and Ahn are in a bilateral confrontation due to the unification of the opposition parties, Park’s 41.9% and Ahn’s 41.4% were counted.
Candidate Park surpassed 46.0% vs. 33.7% in the virtual bilateral confrontation with Candidate Na Gyeong-won, the power of the people, and 45.3% vs 36.1% in the virtual bilateral confrontation with Candidate Se-hoon Oh. On the other hand, if the Democratic Party’s candidate Sang-ho Woo appeared, it was found to be pushed by Ahn. In the virtual bilateral showdown, candidate Woo 29.3% and candidate Ahn 44.7%. Candidate Woo was also inferior at 31.0% versus 41.8% in the virtual bilateral confrontation with Candidate Oh. Candidate Woo, however, was within the margin of error with Candidate Na, who gained 37.9%, gaining 33.9% in the virtual bilateral confrontation with Candidate Na.
In the event of a three-way confrontation due to the failure to unify the opposition, it was found that Park was ahead. Candidate Park, Candidate Ahn, and Candidate Na were 39.7%, 27.1%, and 19.2%, respectively. If candidate Oh was put in place of candidate Na, candidate Park was 38.7%, candidate Ahn 27.8%, and candidate Oh 19.6%.
In the case of a three-way confrontation with Candidate Woo instead of Candidate Park in the Democratic Party, it was found that Candidate Ahn and Candidate Woo compete within the margin of error.
This survey was conducted with 100% wireless full screen contact. Statistical correction was performed by applying weights (cell weighting) according to the proportion of the population by gender, age group, and region based on the Ministry of Public Administration and Security’s resident registration population statistics at the end of January 2021. The sampling error is ±3.5% points at the 95% confidence level. For more information, refer to the website of the Central Election Polls Review Committee.
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