Showdown in the Brexit contest! Who wants what in the British Parliament?


To pass the Brexit agreement, Theresa May needs a majority in parliament. For some Groups are still worth being convinced, in others they will meet resistance.

British Prime Minister Theresa May needs 320 votes in Parliament in London for the ratification of the Brexit agreement. In short, it must attract around 115 parliamentarians to its side or bring the double in abstention. Currently the situation in the lower house is similar to this:

Tory loyalists (for): At least 150 members of the conservative faction are considered absolutely faithful. In addition to their mandate, they have jobs in the government and should hand them over to vote against the agreement. 200 Conservative MEPs supported Prime Minister Theresa May's confidence vote in the conservative faction in December. Overall, you can probably hope for around 205 loyal party friends.

Intransigent Brexit conservatives (against): Up to 80 strong men is the so-called European research group for the eccentric backbencher Jacob Rees-Mogg. How many Members of this group will vote will surely not be clear. Maybe he should have dragged most of this group on his side for a chance. There are also around 20 independent EU skeptics.

Brexit difficult, Brexit soft, Brexit without agreement – what is it?
The English understand below "hard Brexit" usually the plan of Prime Minister Theresa May to lead her country not only from the European Union, but also from the internal market and the Customs Union. Instead, May wants to reschedule reports on free trade agreements. "Soft Brexit" According to this agreement, this means leaving the EU, but with further access to the single market and accession to the Customs Union. May does not want this, because it rejects the conditions of the EU: those who want to belong to the internal market, must also accept the influx of citizens of the EU. And as a member of Customs you can not conclude your commercial contracts. In Brussels and Germany the terms are sometimes used differently. From the May announcement of leaving the domestic market and the customs union, the original idea of ​​"soft Brexit" has been virtually shelved. The most favorable scenario now is that by the end of March agreement is reached on an EU exit agreement and key points for future relations and a transitional solution. With "Hard Brexit" the extreme case is often described: a failure of the negotiations and an exit of the United Kingdom without a contract and without a solution of transition and connection. In the United Kingdom, this Brexit is usually referred to as a "no-deal" or "Brexit-cliff-edge" scenario without an agreement.

Friendly Tories for the EU (half term): A group of about twelve MPs around the former Attorney General Dominic Grieve fights for the closest connection with the EU or even a departure from the European Union. In the Brexit agreement, some may see the opportunity to avoid at least a severe break with the EU.

Work Loyalists (against): Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn speculates new elections in case of failure of the Brexit agreement. About 180 deputies should follow his call and vote against the agreement.

Labor backbenchers of European law (against): On the banks of Labor, a strong movement emerged requiring a second referendum and a departure from Brexit. Even the 60 or so parliamentarians around the charismatic deputy Chuka Umunna should reject the agreement.

Labor rebels (for): Up to 20 Labor MPs may be tempted to vote for the May Brexit deal. Or because they themselves are convinced of the exit of the European Union, or because they have a large constituency in Brexit in their constituencies, such as Mr Caroline Flint.

DUP (against): The ten members of the Protestant Party of Northern Ireland could overthrow the scales. However, party leader Arlene Foster leaves no doubt that his party does not want to support the deal. Furthermore, the DUP threatens to bring down the government. The DUP does not want to accept any special status for Northern Ireland, as foreseen in the Brexit agreement. It can count on the DUP votes since the early elections of 2017. It is debatable whether Northern Irish can be bought with further promises for their economically dependent province.

Other opposition (against): The Scottish National Party (SNP), the liberals, the Greens, the Welsh party Plaid Cymru – the small opposition parties together have about 50 deputies. Many have clearly lined up against Brexit and are calling for a second referendum. The leader of the SNP faction Ian Blackford is one of the most vocal critics of the agreement.



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