The dollar for savings came to occupy the first place among the concerns of the Central Bank (BCRA). The flow of retail savers that access the portals of their banks to buy the quota of USD 200 per month authorized by the current exchange regulations is at record levels, with more and more buyers entering the foreign exchange market each month, estimating close to 4 million in the market last month. The ant purchases are today the cause that the entity led by Miguel Pesce must lose reserves almost daily in the exchange market. AND, Although the central banker’s environment says that the decision is not being considered today, a harder stocks that reduce retail purchases is the first option on the table if the bleeding worsens.
The growth of the exchange rate gap encourages savers to take advantage of each month to allocate about $ 20,000 to buy dollars at a price that in the first days of this month exceeded $ 100, taking into account the price charged by the banks plus the Tax COUNTRY 30%. The distance between the “solidarity” exchange rate and the blue quotation in the informal market reached over 50% in April, amid the most intense quarantine and the monetary issue to finance spending, to later cut and stabilize near the 30%.
Either because the rise in alternative exchange rates creates the feeling that the official is cheap or because families buy to make a difference by reselling in the parallel market, the participation of people in the exchange market is accelerating. It went from 1.5 million buyers in June of last year to 3.3 million in June. According to a bank with a strong participation in wholesale sales, if they extrapolate their own sales to those of the rest of the market, the number of buyers approached 4 million in July, a data that has not yet been officially published.
In another private bank they admitted that the first days of August were to worry. Visits to its applications for cell phones and homebanking quadrupled in the first days of the month compared to the same days in June. They clarify that they are not all sales, many times customers enter just to find out about the price. But behind this unusual influx of customers are the delays and system outages that practically all entities experienced on August 3, the first business day on which savers enjoy the new monthly quota.
In the first six business days of August, the Central had to sell USD 477 million to satisfy demand. A month earlier, in the same number of days he had had to dump USD 284 million. In June, on the other hand, it had achieved the reverse: buying USD 354 million in the same period.
As he could know Infobae, in Pesce’s environment they admit that the impact on reserves of retail sales is today among the first concerns of the entity. A source with participation in the decisions said that in the central banker’s scheme the reduction or elimination of the quota for retailers is the first option in case the drain of dollars is maintained or accelerated. He prefers it, for example, to enable an advance in the price of the dollar that gives it some air by reducing the purchasing power of savers, due to the impact on prices and the confidence that admitting a discreet movement of the currency would imply.
However, the decision to cut the amount that people can access each month has not been made. The same source admitted that such a measure can have such a political impact that it can only be decided at the highest levels of the Government, not just the Central Bank. Pesce would need the endorsement of the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, but even more so that of President Alberto Fernández himself.
“Today it is not on the table to change the solidarity“, said to Infobae Another source from the Central Bank who admitted, however, that there is pressure from the private sector in that direction.
“It is likely that the UIA or those linked to the business world who cannot access dollars to turn to head offices or have limitations to pay debts and those things are interested in closing one tap so that another can be opened,” said the same source.
In Economics, meanwhile, the position is not taken. The option to wait, especially for the completion of the foreign law debt swap, is today the favorite. Far from Pesce’s urgencies, Guzmán is still betting on a stabilization of parallel dollars such as the cash with settlement and the MEP dollar after the exchange of new bonds for old bonds is completed. Behind the rise in these prices, they say, there are arbitrations by investors who buy bonds in dollars with pesos to win with the conditions of the local law exchange. After that effect, those dollars could stabilize and drag the blue with them. And, with less gap, reduce the thirst for dollars that worries the monetary authority.
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